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Jakarta Post

Grim result from COVID-19 modeling

  • Ardila Syakriah

    The Jakarta Post

Jakarta   /   Thu, April 2 2020   /  12:43 am

If Indonesia does not step up its current COVID-19 control measures, the country might have to deal with a “collapsed” healthcare system and hundreds of thousands of deaths, as shown by a projection by the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) and public health experts from the University of Indonesia (UI).

The modeling indicates that without mandatory physical distancing and mass testing, categorized in the document as a high degree of intervention, the country could see between 47,984 and 240,244 deaths without taking into account medical and treatment intervention.

Even with such drastic mandatory measures, the virus could infect some 500,000 people and kill 11,898 people, while the absence of intervention might lead to some 2.5 million positive cases by April.

The figures merely refer to cases needing hospital treatment, with forecasts based on the ...