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Analysis: Jokowi scouting next TNI chief
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President Joko Widodo watches Army Training in Baturaja Sulse. Tuesday, June 16, 2015. (JP/Adi)
P
resident Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has reportedly moved to select the new Indonesian Military (TNI) chief as the current commander, Gen. Andika Perkasa, will reach his retirement age of 58 on Dec. 21 and Jokowi does not seem to consider an extension of Andika’s military service.
According to the TNI Law, the President will name a candidate for the TNI top post from all the four-star generals who have held chief of staff jobs in their respective military branches. This means Jokowi’s choice will be limited to Army Chief of Staff Gen. Dudung Abdurachman, Navy Chief of Staff Adm. Yudo Margono and Air Force Chief of Staff Marshall Fadjar Prasetyo. Jokowi can add a new option if he appoints one of the chiefs of staff as deputy TNI chief, hence his replacement within the next two months.
Considering that Jokowi has never appointed his TNI chief from the Navy since he took office in 2014, many believe Yudo stands a greater chance of winning Jokowi’s trust to replace Andika as TNI chief. An expert believes that giving the Navy a chance is important to maintain equality between the military branches.
Yudo is also believed to deserve a shot because of the Jokowi government’s vision. Since the beginning of his administration, Jokowi has pledged to turn Indonesia into a world’s maritime axis. Therefore, it is only logical to let the Navy chief hold the TNI top post this time around.
Yudo’s main contender seems to be none other than Dudung. Many, however, believe Dudung has lost his chance after his rift with Andika was disclosed by House of Representatives member Effendi Simbolon earlier this month. A video showing Dudung mobilizing Army soldiers to bully and intimidate Effendi on social media circulated, shortly after the lawmaker’s controversial statement.
Meanwhile, Effendi said if the presidential letter on the appointment of the new TNI chief reaches the House before it enters into recess on Oct. 4, chances are Yudo will most likely be nominated as TNI chief. Effendi dubbed this “Plan A”. But if the President submits his letter after recess in December, hopes for both Yudo and Dudung to take over as the TNI chief will diminish because by that time they will have less than 10 months to serve in the military.
Effendi said President Jokowi might have a plan B, namely preparing a candidate outside the serving chiefs of staff to lead the TNI during a political year. Effendi said he had heard rumors of a “generational cut” in the military, in which the next TNI chief will be a high-ranking officer born after 1968. The speculation has remained unvalidated, but some observers have warned of politicization of the military if the “generational cut” occurs.
