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Is a quick win possible in next year's presidential election?
The February presidential and legislative elections are still 60 days away, but if we use multiple public opinion surveys as a guide, we would expect Prabowo Subianto and his grand coalition to win the election and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) to be on its way to losing at the polls for the first time in 25 years.
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Three presidential candidates, Anies Baswedan (right), Prabowo Subianto (center) and Ganjar Pranowo pose on Dec. 12, 2023, after the first presidential debate at the General Elections Commission (KPU) office in Jakarta. (AFP/Yasuyoshi Chiba)
Is it possible that the five presidential and vice presidential debates, and the either one or two rounds of voting are simply formalities, and the momentum is now moving for Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka?
The February presidential and legislative elections are still 60 days away, but if we use multiple public opinion surveys as a guide, we would expect Prabowo Subianto and his grand coalition to win the election and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) to be on its way to losing at the polls for the first time in 25 years.
Almost all public opinion polls have concluded that if the presidential election were to be held today, Prabowo would likely win and succeed President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to become the country’s 8th president.
With the support of everyone in the ruling coalition, Prabowo's supporters now certainly feel euphoric about Prabowo’s chances of winning more than 50 percent of the vote. We can only hope that the expectation is not misplaced and that Prabowo will again miserably lose like in the 2014 and 2019 elections.
There is some chatter, even among politicians from the PDI-P, which backs presidential contenders Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD as well as supporters of Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, that it would be an insurmountable task to beat Prabowo, who has won the endorsement from President Jokowi, who has almost endless resources to help them in the fight.
The President remains highly popular among voters and he is in control of all the tools, facilities and infrastructure needed to ensure that his candidate of preference will win the race. And with his son on the ticket with Prabowo, it is almost impossible to expect him to stay neutral in the race.
Jokowi turned his back on the PDI-P, which nominated him twice for president, in 2014 and 2019, probably because Prabowo chose his son as his running mate. This has outraged PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, who has accused him of wanting to revive the New Order regime, which ended in May 1998.
