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View all search resultsAnalysis: Prabowo's pivot: Geopolitical risk of hodgepodge arms deals
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Visitors are seen near the Chinese-made Chengdu J-10 Vigorous Dragon fighter jet during the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition on Nov. 14, 2024, in Zhuhai, in southern China's Guangdong province. (AFP/Hector Retamal)
D
efense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin has confirmed that Chinese J-10 fighter jets are set to soar across Indonesia's airspace, ending months of speculation. While this procurement follows Indonesia's recent acquisitions of Rafale jets from France and fighter aircraft from Turkey, the Beijing deal has drawn particular attention for its speed and opaque timing.
Since President Prabowo Subianto took office last October, defense procurement has accelerated dramatically. The government has signed a deal for 42 Rafale aircraft worth an estimated US$8.1 billion and another for 48 Turkish combat planes, valued at around US$9.6 billion. Both agreements were widely covered as symbolic of renewed efforts to modernize the military's air fleet and strengthen bilateral defense ties with strategic allies.
Under the Prabowo administration, the country also looks set to revive its partnership with South Korea in developing KF-21 Boramae, a 4.5-generation fighter jet. The two sides have signed a revised Project Agreement on Joint Development for the country's continued participation in the KF-21 program, just days after Indonesia agreed to purchase KAAN jets from Turkey.
By contrast, the announcement on the procurement of China's J-10, reportedly for 42 aircraft, appeared without warning. Unlike the highly publicized French and Turkish deals, the Chinese agreement caught observers off guard, prompting questions about its strategic rationale and Indonesia's broader foreign policy direction. The obscure process signals a potential swing toward Beijing.
Indonesia's foreign policy underwent a significant shift immediately after the inauguration of Prabowo, who has made over 16 overseas trips and visited 24 countries in the first year of his presidency. His administration has loudly promoted its "free and active" foreign policy, refusing to enter any geopolitical bloc and welcoming any nation interested in striking a deal with Indonesia.
Under this same rationale, Prabowo pushed Indonesia to join BRICS, an intergovernmental organization that aims to counter the Western-dominated geopolitical order. This controversial move immediately raised questions: Is Indonesia moving freely and actively, or is the policy merely personal ambition disguised as national interest?
Known for his realpolitik views and Army background, Prabowo has emphasized strengthening military capacity to anticipate future threats in an uncertain international climate. This is reflected in his administration's defense budget of Rp 245.2 trillion (US$15 billion) this year and a projected Rp 335.2 trillion for 2026.
