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View all search resultsWarmer Arctic, colder relations up north
Melting sea and land ice in the Arctic is not only changing the climate but also geopolitical alignments and economic rivalry, all the way south to the tropics.
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RV Kronprins Haakon, a polar research icebreaker owned by the Norwegian Polar Institute, sails on Feb. 18, 2026, off Longyearbyen on Spitsbergen Island in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago. (AFP/Oriane Laromiguière)
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n early October, Reykjavík greeted us with rain, cloudy skies and strong northern winds. Tourists hoping to see the aurora borealis were disappointed, yet among the more than 2,000 participants at the Arctic Circle Assembly on Oct. 8-10, the atmosphere was one of anticipation. As newcomers, we followed discussions on topics most relevant to Indonesia, particularly scientific research, maritime connectivity and geopolitics.
From the discussion and after pondering on the central theme of “Navigating a Changing Arctic”, three sets of challenges came to mind: strategic rivalry, competing economic interests and climate change. Their consequences extend far beyond the Arctic.
First, the Arctic is increasingly a theater of strategic competition and rivalry. The prolonged war in Ukraine has intensified military preparedness and distrust between Moscow and NATO members.
During the Cold War, surveillance installations across the northern territories monitored Soviet Union activity and, of course, vice versa. Today, renewed investment in the Arctic surveillance system and defense reflects a familiar rivalry.
Countries bordering the Arctic are also revamping their outlook and strategy. Norway, for example, has emphasized preparedness, sustainable development and resilient communities in its High North policy.
On its part, Greenland’s strategic location and mineral potential have attracted American and European attention. Thus, the Arctic is no longer a distant periphery of international security.
Second, economic competition is accelerating. Beyond fisheries and hydrocarbons, critical minerals and maritime transport offer opportunities but their exploitation demands expensive infrastructure and carries substantial environmental risks.
