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World Bank warns of 2 percent contraction in RI economy

The government should invest more on human and physical capital as the post-COVID-19 economy was likely to require different skills from workers, says World Bank. 

Yunindita Prasidya (The Jakarta Post)
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Tue, July 21, 2020

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T

he World Bank has warned that the Indonesian economy might contract 2 percent this year if mobility restrictions are further implemented to contain the spread of COVID-19.

“Under somewhat harsher assumptions on the global economy of a deeper contraction, and if there is a need for mobility restrictions to be reinstated going forward, we do think that the economy could actually contract by 2 percent in 2020,” World Bank Indonesia lead economist Frederico Gil Sander said during the virtual launch of World Bank’s Indonesia Economic Prospect report on Thursday. 

The coronavirus outbreak in Indonesia has not shown any signs of abating as more than 1,000 new cases have been recorded daily since June. Infections stood at 81,600 as of Thursday afternoon with 3,800 deaths, official data show.

Despite the rising number of cases, the government and regional administrations relaxed social restrictions amid concerns of a slumping economy.

Read also: Indonesia’s economy could enter recession in Q3: Sri Mulyani

The government projects the country’s economy to grow by 1 percent this year under the baseline scenario or contract by 4 percent under the worst case scenario as the pandemic batters business activity and hits demand. The economy grew 2.97 percent in the first quarter, the lowest in 19 years.

The World Bank’s report, titled The Long Road to Recovery, published this month, states that Indonesia’s GDP is expected to be unchanged from 2019. Last year, the country’s GDP grew 5 percent. 

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