The possibility of the 35-year-old Surakarta mayor joining next year's presidential election has recently gained traction among both political parties and the public as the court reviews the General Elections Law over whether or not to lower the minimum age requirements for candidates from 40 to 35.

The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which counts both the President and his son among its members, is mulling over the possibility of pairing Gibran with the party’s presumptive nominee, outgoing Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo.

"We are watching [the judicial review] closely. If the court decides that there can be vice presidential candidates under the age of 40, then Gibran could have a chance at running," Puan Maharani, the PDI-P executive in charge of electoral strategy and daughter of chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, said last Thursday.

If the court rules to lower the age of candidacy, Gibran will be up against five more experienced politicians on the shortlist of Ganjar’s running mate: Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Minister Erick Thohir, Democratic Party chair and former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s eldest son Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, National Awakening Party (PKB) chair Muhaimin Iskandar and former Indonesian Military (TNI) commander Gen. (ret) Andika Perkasa.

But the food entrepreneur turned politician has gained wider public support as a vice presidential candidate, ranking among the top six hopefuls with 7.6 percent electability, according to an early July survey by the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI).

Electoral ladder

Although the PDI-P has demonstrated it is open to the idea, the party previously suggested that Gibran and other younger members should compete in the regional head elections first before trying for the national polls.

“The PDI-P always provides opportunities for the younger generation, such as Gibran, Surabaya Mayor Heri Cahyadi, Medan Mayor Bobby Nasution, to participate in politics [...],” PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto said.

But he added that “leaders always come [up] from the local [levels], becoming mayors and then governors, and then pushed to the national level if the people wish it”.

The PDI-P is the only party to have won sufficient votes in the 2019 elections to fulfill the presidential nomination threshold. All other parties must form an electoral alliance to put forward any candidates for the 2024 presidential election.

Prabowo-Gibran

The PDI-P’s shift in posture over Gibran joining the 2024 race came after his name was raised as a possible running mate for another presidential contender, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who lost back-to-back in the last two elections against Gibran’s father.

The 71-year-old former general has frequently traveled to Surakarta, the Widodos’ hometown, to meet with Gibran over the past few months. One of these meetings involved several groups of Gibran supporters issuing a controversial declaration of support for the Gerindra Party chair, which eventually led to the PDI-P central board summoning Gibran to provide a clarification.

Asked about the potential pairing earlier this month, Prabowo said of Gibran: “As a public figure, of course he will be considered.”

The idea of Gibran running for vice president has also gained traction among the Golkar Party, the country’s oldest nationalist party, with Golkar lawmaker Ahmad Doli Kurnia expressing the party’s readiness to be a political vehicle for Gibran’s potential election bid.

Gerindra has recently joined hands with Golkar, the Muslim-based National Awakening Party (PKB), National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Crescent Star Party (PBB), a move that has pushed Prabowo ahead of all other presumptive nominees in terms of political support.

Golkar deputy chairman Melchias Marcus Mekeng recently told The Jakarta Post that it was possible the party would back Gibran, but that it was “still trying to find the right arrangement”.

“We still have two months before the candidate registration opens” for the presidential race, he added.

Gibran’s choice

While the Jokowi’s unrivaled popularity can bolster his son’s chances at the polls, it is still up to Gibran to decide whether to join the February 2024 race or wait until 2029 to contest the national elections, even if the court lowers the age of candidacy for the vice presidency.

Even if he decides to bid next year, analyst Agung Baskoro is of the view that the PDI-P is unlikely to pair him with Ganjar, as the two have a similar voter base that will not help the Central Java governor widen his appeal beyond that province.

“Ganjar needs someone who can help him gain the support of groups that are different from his traditional base,” Agung underlined.

On the other hand, he said that pairing Gibran with Prabowo would help parties in the Gerindra-led alliance find a middle ground while negotiating who should run alongside the defense minister.

The parties in the Gerindra-led alliance have been fronting their own members as Prabowo’s running mate. Golkar and the PKB are pushing their respective chairs Airlangga Hartarto and Muhaimin, while PAN has put forth SOEs minister Erick, whose family was a major donor to Jokowi’s campaigns in the last two elections.