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Strategic stakes running high in ASEAN summit on Myanmar
There appears to be no end in sight to the violence, despite pleas and condemnations from all around the world.
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This handout photo taken and released by Dawei Watch on Tuesday shows a protester holding a sign during a rally against the military coup in Launglone township in Myanmar's Dawei district. (Dawei Watch via AFP/Handout)
M
yanmar’s post-coup humanitarian crisis continues to unfold with at least 550 casualties, including children, and almost 3,000 detainees by now. There appears to be no end in sight to the violence, despite pleas and condemnations from all around the world.
Some have called for the United Nations to act based on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle. But R2P tools short of military intervention, such as embargoes, sanctions or International Criminal Court prosecution, may not move the needle. Indeed, it is unclear whether the targeted sanctions preferred by the likes of the United States and United Kingdom would change the Tatmadaw generals’ calculus.
We also cannot easily rule out a “Libyan quagmire” scenario if there is a full-blown military intervention or a Chapter VII peacekeeping mission in Myanmar. In any case, UN Security Council (UNSC) actions are likely stuck with Russia and China holding veto powers. Vietnam, the UNSC president for April, doesn’t appear keen to prioritize the Myanmar crisis it deems an “internal affair”.
Meanwhile, regional powers with serious leverage in Myanmar – China, Russia, India, Japan, Thailand, Singapore and the US – won’t work closely in concert given their diametrically opposed strategic interests. Without such a concert, the domestic balance of power in Myanmar is unlikely to shift significantly sans a prolonged civil war or an intra-military coup.
Indonesia on the other hand had led the efforts to put ASEAN front and center to address the crisis. A few weeks ago, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo called for an ASEAN special summit. The strategic stakes in the summit, expected to take place later this month at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta, are high.
What happens in Myanmar does not stay in Myanmar. If the crisis worsens, Southeast Asia might be overwhelmed with multiple crises at once, from refugees fleeing the country, exploding drug trafficking and transnational crimes to a worsening pandemic and slower economic recovery.
Read also: ASEAN summit on Myanmar to be held in Jakarta: Brunei and Malaysia
