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Islamic parties may face uphill battle in 2024 elections, experts say
Indonesia’s established Islam-based parties could face a tough challenge to maintain their legislative standing in the upcoming 2024 general elections amid a lack of popular leaders to attract voters in an increasingly crowded political space filled by many ner parties, experts have said.
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A worker arranges the ballot papers for the 2020 Makassar regional elections at the Celebes Convention Center in Makassar, South Sulawesi, on Nov. 24, 2020. (Antara/Arnas Padda)
Indonesia’s established Islam-based parties could face a tough challenge to maintain their legislative standing in the upcoming 2024 general elections amid a lack of popular leaders to attract voters in an increasingly crowded political space filled by many new parties, experts have said.
Recent surveys have highlighted the challenges to attract voters for the Islam-based parties that had participated in previous elections, namely the National Mandate Party (PAN), National Awakening Party (PKB), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the United Development Party (PPP) and the Crescent Moon Party (PBB).
A February survey by Jakarta-based pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia revealed that if the legislative elections were being held at that time, the PKB and PKS would only get 8 percent and 5 percent of the vote, respectively. Meanwhile, support for other Islam-based parties was below the 4 percent parliamentary threshold.
The survey, which gathered the response of some 1,200 respondents across the country, has a 2.9 percent margin of error.
In total, the votes for the five parties reached 18 percent, according to the survey. Another survey conducted by Kompas daily, which also used a similar sample size, also found similar results, with only the PKS and PKB able to secure enough support past the current parliamentary threshold.
Senior scholar Fachry Ali said the lack of popular figures with strong leadership from the Islam-based parties was among the main reasons why they were facing “more problems” than other political parties in attracting voters.
He highlighted that nationalist-based parties such as the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Gerindra Party have former president Megawati Soekarnoputri and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto to galvanize support for their respective parties.
