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No current VP pick stands out for voters
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Two children walk past a 2024 general election-themed mural in Pandeglang, Banten, on March 6, 2023. (Antara/Muhammad Bagus Khoirunas)
With none of the top-three potential presidential candidates for the 2024 race commanding an absolute majority of support by polling more than 50 percent, vice-presidential picks are usually expected to boost the electability rating of a candidate, but a survey has found the opposite to be true.
In a survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), taken between March 2 and 11, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo remains the frontrunner for the 2024 presidential race, enjoying 35.5 percent support among 1,220 respondents, followed by Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto with 27.2 percent and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan with 24.8 percent.
However, an experiment taken along with the March survey also found that there was little evidence that vice-presidential picks, despite their backgrounds, would give Ganjar, Anies or Prabowo a significant electoral boost, SMRC’s founder Saiful Mujani said.
When a subgroup of 155 respondents was asked for whom they would vote if Ganjar was competing against Prabowo and Anies, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician remained the frontrunner enjoying 41 percent of the vote, while Prabowo and Anies garnered 29 percent and 23 percent, respectively.
In a simulation, the Central Java governor was then paired with Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto; State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir; East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa; Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Minister Mahfud MD; and West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil. However, none of the aforementioned figures helped to boost support for Ganjar.
Support for Ganjar even fell by 4 percent when paired with Airlangga, by 5 percent when paired with Erick, by 3 percent if paired with Khofifah, by 6 percent if paired with Mahfud and by 1 percent when paired with Ridwan.
"The figures do not help Ganjar from an electability standpoint, at least according to the results of our research this March. This, however, can still change due to mobilization and so on. If he wishes to pick one of these figures, the consideration should not be to increase his electability but rather for their leadership, competence and so on," said Saiful.
