An index released by Bawaslu on Tuesday reveals that the nine provinces and 48 regencies are highly prone to disruption in the 2020 regional elections.

The Elections Vulnerability Index is an early warning instrument to prevent any disruption and violations in elections. “We hope that all stakeholders will utilize it to improve their election monitoring policies, programs and strategies,” Bawaslu head Abhan said at the launch of the index.

On Sept. 23, voters will elect leaders in nine provinces, 224 regencies and 37 cities. The 2020 index identifies the election vulnerability in these 270 regions based on data from past elections and discussions with experts.

A regency or city is assigned a score of 0-100, with 56.95-100 considered highly vulnerable; 43.07-56.94 mild and 0-43.06 low. For provinces, meanwhile, a score of 57.55-100 suggests high vulnerability; 42.47-57.54 mild and 0-42.46 low.

Bawaslu looked at four dimensions to measure the vulnerability of a region:

• the social and political context, including whether violence and intimidation had occurred in the past and whether election organizers and the state bureaucracy were professional and of strong integrity
• the history of free and fair elections, including the accuracy of voter data and the monitoring process
• the nature of the competition, including whether vote-buying and “political dowry” were involved, candidacy disputes and conflict between supporters
• and the level of participation, including by voters, the public and political parties.

The average vulnerability score for regencies and cities is 51.65. Meanwhile, the average score for provinces is 73.80.