The announcement of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka as the last presidential candidate pairing to be registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU) reveals a cold antagonism between sitting President Joko ‘’Jokowi’’ Widodo and former president and party matron Megawati Soekarnoputri, which could go on long beyond the 2024 elections.

Both Jokowi and Megawati are important figures in the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) who should have been side by side supporting PDI-P’s president and vice president candidates Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD. In fact, the arrangement for Gibran, who is Jokowi’s eldest son, to be Prabowo’s vice presidential candidate might be a contending case that Jokowi is inclined to support Prabowo and opposes Megawati’s pick.

All indications show that Jokowi and Megawati are not on good terms anymore. Megawati made a sudden announcement of Mahfud MD to be Ganjar’s running mate when Jokowi was away on state visits to China and Saudi Arabia. A few days later, Prabowo and his coalition of political parties announced their pick of Gibran as his running mate. Jokowi publicly said that as a parent, he would support what his son decided to do.

Jokowi’s role in the 2024 election has never been more significant as his blessing, contested by both Prabowo and Ganjar, could be decisive in the final result. His high public approval rating of 81.2 percent, the highest ever for a sitting president, provides him promising political capital to be a kingmaker for the upcoming election.

Jokowi’s strong political muscle seems to be out of Megawati’s reach as she has belittled Jokowi several times, saying Jokowi was merely a party officer, or without the PDI-P, Jokowi would have been nobody. Megawati strongly suggested that Jokowi be loyal to PDI-P as the party consistently supported him to occupy the mayoral seat in Surakarta, Central Java, and governorship in Jakarta before winning two consecutive presidential elections in 2014 and 2019. As the president, Jokowi, however, has refused to be hand-tied with the party-officer label.

As a card-carrying PDI-P member and political son of Megawati, Jokowi might not dare to openly go toe-to-toe with his own chairwoman. However, Gibran becoming Prabowo’s running mate, Jokowi’s other son Kaesang Pangarep becoming chairman of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which tacitly supports Prabowo and a recent declaration by Jokowi’s loyalist organization Pro-Jokowi (ProJo) to support Prabowo is evidence that Jokowi has made his stance bright against Megawati.

Jokowi has also consolidated power around him during his recent cabinet reshuffles, taking his own loyalists to the cabinet at the expense of PDI-P. Last July, he recruited ProJo chairman Budi Arie Setiadi as the communications and information minister, and on Wednesday reinstalled another loyalist Amran Soelaiman as agriculture minister, both replacing NasDem Party politicians who were implicated in corruption scandals. Like Budi Arie, Amran has also supported Prabowo. Amran and Prabowo had met several times, and the retired general hinted in August that Amran could help him with his presidential campaign.

Megawati, however, has been mum on Jokowi’s moves against her. Sources said that Megawati has instructed the PDI-P not to comment negatively about Jokowi and his family’s moves. Megawati is focusing on winning the legislative election and beating Prabowo, and Jokowi’s family, in the presidential election. The PDI-P, for instance, is now initiating talks with Anies Baswedan’s camp to court the latter to support Ganjar-Mahfud if Anies falls out in the second round of the presidential elections.

What’s more

What action the PDI-P will take against Gibran has not been defined although the party has been proven to be assertive with its members who do not support Ganjar as a presidential candidate. For instance, Budiman Sudjatmiko and Effendi Simbolon, two senior PDI-P members, faced dismissal after showing support for Prabowo.6 PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto also urged all PDI-P members nationwide not to be a turncoat against the party’s arrangement.

There is an internal regulation within the PDI-P that regulates PDI-P members and their nuclear family to be under the same PDI-P flag. Even though Djarot Saiful Hidayat, a PDI-P official, explained that the regulation does not apply to Jokowi’s family and Gibran as the latter is considered a grown man, the party might see it as a lack of political education by the head of the family.

The PDI-P backed Gibran to win the mayoral elections in Surakarta, and Gibran remains a PDI-P card carrying member despite his recent move to be Prabowo’s running mate. Gibran left the matter to the PDI-P. Megawati’s daughter and PDI-P executive Puan Maharani confirmed that Gibran saw her and told her that he would become Prabowo’s running mate, but he did not mention about quitting the party. Yet PDI-P Surakarta chapter chairman FX Hadi Rudyatmo suggested that Gibran wrote a letter to Megawati quitting the party.9 Another PDI-P executive Komarudin Watubun said without quitting, Gibran’s party membership was automatically cancelled after he joined Prabowo’s camp.

What we’ve heard

The relationship between the PDI-P and President Jokowi has warmed following the decision of Jokowi's eldest son, Gibran, to become the vice-presidential candidate of Prabowo. Gibran has met with the secretary-general of the PDI-P, Hasto Kristiyanto, and PDI-P chairwoman Puan Maharani. Neither confirmed Gibran's status as a PDI-P member.

Close associates of Jokowi have mentioned that the PDI-P has issued a directive to its members not to attack President Jokowi and his family's political maneuvers. The instruction issued by Hasto asks members to explain that the PDI-P has done its best for the Jokowi family. "They do not want direct confrontation," said this source. This source also mentioned that Megawati does not appear to be inclined to issue a dismissal letter against Gibran.

According to this insider, the PDI-P is now focused on winning the legislative elections for the third time. One of the factors is the significant gap in electability between Prabowo-Gibran and Ganjar-Mahfud, which is around 11 per cent. It is feared open conflict with Jokowi will erode support for the party and the presidential and vice-presidential candidates endorsed by the PDI-P.

On Wednesday Megawati virtually gathered PDI-P members serving in Jokowi’s cabinet. In her address, a source within the PDI-P stated that Megawati asked her members to be prepared in case they need to be removed from their positions in the cabinet.

The idea emerged to withdraw all PDI-P ministers from the Indonesia Onward Cabinet. However, a minister mentioned that the PDI-P will not take such an extreme step. "Ministers from the PDI-P understand how to work professionally and detach themselves from the political situation," said one of the President's aides.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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