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Analysis: Prabowo-Gibran's masterplan in motion to avoid run-off
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President Joko “Jokowi“ Widodo arrives in Surabaya, East Java, on Jan. 15, 2024, for a working visit. (The Jakarta Post/Antara)
I
n the high-stakes arena of Indonesian politics, presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka seem to have made strategic and calculated attempts to secure victory after one round in next month's election. Their most recent bold political maneuver was the much-awaited inclusion of East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa in their campaign team, which many believe will significantly impact their electoral bid. Khofifah's alliance with Prabowo and Gibran will be crucial for the pair to win the battleground in East Java and clinch the presidency in a single round.
Khofifah declared her support for Prabowo's presidential bid and expressed her willingness to contribute to his campaign team on Jan. 10. The incumbent East Java governor has officially been appointed as the director and national campaign spokesperson for the National Campaign Team (TKN) of the Prabowo-Gibran ticket. Campaign chief Rosan Roeslani recalled Khofifah was the one who requested to take the spokesperson job.
Previously, Khofifah was tipped to be Prabowo's running mate, an especially strategic move because of her popularity among millions of followers of the country's largest Muslim group, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). Khofifah now leads NU's women's organization, Muslimat.
Last year, Prabowo had made attempts to court her, but she declined, citing her focus on her duties as governor. With Khofifah's strategic position, Rosan believes that Prabowo-Gibran could win 65 percent of the votes in East Java.
The alliance between Khofifah and Prabowo-Gibran looks formidable, but rival presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo is far from afraid. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) presidential candidate said he was confident his running mate Mahfud MD, who is also affiliated with the NU and a native of East Java, could rival Khofifah in wooing NU followers.
Presidential candidate Anies Baswedan's running mate, Muhaimin Iskandar, also played down the Khofifah effect. Muhaimin said Khofifah's decision to join Prabowo-Gibran campaign team would not jeopardize his move to appeal to NU voters in East Java.
The campaign team of Prabowo-Gibran is upbeat about the candidate pair's chance of winning the race in one round, notwithstanding Khofifah's decision to jump the bandwagon. A spokesperson for the team, Hasan Nasbi, said the confidence-booster came after the recent publication of the pair's electability rating.
A survey conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs found that Prabowo and Gibran's electability increased to 48.5 percent from previously 42.66 percent. Meanwhile, Anies and Muhaimin had practically stagnated at 22.80 percent from 22.14 percent. Ganjar and Mahfud, on the other hand, dropped from 22.95 percent to 18.35 percent. The rise in Prabowo and Gibran's electability is a result of the coattail effect of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's gestures of support. It also helps that Prabowo and Gibran have expressed their commitment to continue President Jokowi's programs to the public.
Hasan, who is the executive director of Cyrus Network, said Ipsos' findings were more or less the same as Cyrus Network's, which boosted the confidence of a single-round electoral victory for Prabowo and Gibran.
What’s more
While Prabowo-Gibran may be enjoying the rise of their electability rate, also indicated by surveys conducted by Indonesia Polling Station and Survey and Polling Indonesia (SPIN), which show that their electability has risen further to 50 percent5 , their chances of securing a landslide victory may be in jeopardy after Prabowo's less-than-stellar performance at the most recent presidential debate.
The Gerindra Party chairman's failure to keep his composure throughout the debate, particularly when he was grilled by his contenders on defense issues, posed a huge red flag for rational voters, according to analysts.
Although Prabowo-Gibran has taken a comfortable lead since the start of the campaign season, analysts have predicted that the February race would not give the pair a majority victory, as they scored below 50 percent in most opinion surveys.
To avoid a run-off, Prabowo has been said to be intensifying his campaign. The front-runner was reported to have ramped up his presidential campaign with visits to Sumatra. Last week alone, Prabowo took three separate days to conduct a whistle-stop tour that covered eight Sumatra provinces. His campaign trail saw him greet supporters in Riau, Jambi, North Sumatra, Bengkulu, Lampung and Bangka Belitung. Prabowo concluded his tour with stops in Medan, North Sumatra, Batam and Riau Islands.
Additionally, reports have been circulating that President Jokowi is worried about Prabowo and Gibran's electability. Some have alleged that the President has asked supporting political parties to work harder to reach their goal. A single-round victory is deemed to be the priority for the Prabowo-Gibran camp, considering that a run-off election would allow both Anies and Ganjar to join forces to beat Prabowo-Gibran in the decisive run-off.
What we’ve heard
The campaign team for presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka is upbeat about the pair's prospect of winning the race in one round, based on reports that the duo takes the lead in most provinces.
Two sources in the campaign team said President Jokowi is also aware of the possibility of the pair to avoid a runoff. According to these sources, President Jokowi told Prabowo during their dinner on Jan. 14 that the presidential candidate's electability rate has reached 49 percent. "Prabowo was asked to continue smiling in public to maintain the electability," said one source.
Jokowi also played a decisive role in selecting regional leaders who would join Prabowo's campaign team, including East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa. A close associate of Khofifah said Jokowi called her while he was on an overseas trip Saudi Arabia last October, asking her when she would declare her support for Prabowo.
According to the source, Khofifah would help Prabowo extend his lead in East Java. Prabowo needs many more votes in East Java because he still trails Ganjar Pranowo in Central Java and Yogyakarta, and faces a stiff challenge from Anies Baswedan in West Java and most parts of Sumatra. "Khofifah will campaign in the pockets of Nahdlatul Ulama in East Java and other regions outside Java," said the source.
Jokowi has also been closely tailing Ganjar in the traditional strongholds of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, such as Lampung in October last year and East Nusa Tenggara two months later, aside from Central Java.
At the end of December, Jokowi visited PT Maspion I factory in Sidoarjo, East Java, and ate lunch with workers there. The visit came just two months after Ganjar visited the consumer durable goods producer in mid-October.
"Jokowi visited areas where Prabowo's electability rating is still low," said a source in the presidential circle.
Disclaimer
This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:
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