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Has Anies lost chance of running for governor?
For PDI-P, embracing Anies would be advantageous. It would not only consolidate its presence in Jakarta but also increase its chance to win other gubernatorial elections in Java, and set the stage for a comeback in the 2029 elections.
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NasDem Party secretary-general Hernawi Taslim (right) talks to reporters during a press briefing at the party's headquarters in Jakarta on July 22, 2024 after a meeting between high-ranking party officials and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan (center). (Antara/Narda Margaretha Sinambela )
I
n the high-stakes world of Indonesian politics, party leaders - described as "gods" by NasDem party treasurer Ahmad Sahroni - are currently negotiating the future of Jakarta. The dynamics of who will be endorsed as governor of Jakarta have taken an unexpected turn.
Anies Baswedan, the frontrunner in many electability surveys, ironically faces the risk of being ineligible to run for failure to gain enough support from political parties. The regulation sets the threshold for parties to nominate a Jakarta gubernatorial candidate at 22 seats in the provincial legislative council.
The parties that supported Anies in the Feb. 14 presidential race – NasDem, National Awakening Party (PKB) and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) – are reconsidering their alliance as the Jakarta gubernatorial election in November approaches.
Conversely, Ridwan Kamil, former West Java governor, now stands a much greater chance of not only contesting but also winning the Jakarta gubernatorial election. Kang Emil, as he is popularly known, will be running with support from the Indonesia Onward Coalition (KIM), the alliance behind the triumphant pair of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the presidential election.
This 180-degree shift in the political landscape began with a strategic move by Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, the executive chairman of the Gerindra Party, who courted the PKB and NasDem to join the KIM in the Jakarta election. Dasco's maneuver reinforces Sahroni's remarks that the "gods" rather than the people determine who will run for governor of Jakarta.
Gerindra, the driving force behind the KIM, is well aware of the crucial role NasDem and PKB play in Anies’ candidacy. With 21 seats in the Jakarta council between them, they need just one more seat to realize Anies’ bid for reelection as Jakarta governor.
Gerindra has also lobbied the PKS, despite the fact that it has declared its support for Anies. With the registration period for candidate pairs on the horizon, the PKS is leaning toward accepting the KIM’s offer although no official agreement has been made.
