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Indonesia’s shaky Myanmar rapprochement

By pursuing rapprochement with Min Aung Hlaing, Southeast Asian leaders risk trading democratic credibility for empty concessions from a crumbling regime.

Joe Heaver (The Jakarta Post)
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Jakarta
Fri, October 30, 2026

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A Rohingya refugee living in Malaysia holds his son while others prepare to slaughter cows during the Idul Adha festival in Kuala Lumpur on July 10, 2022. A Rohingya refugee living in Malaysia holds his son while others prepare to slaughter cows during the Idul Adha festival in Kuala Lumpur on July 10, 2022. (AFP/Mohd Rasfan)

O

n Oct. 23, DVB News ran the headline that 400 ethnic Rakhine men who were repatriated from Malaysia to Yangon in Myanmar on Oct. 4 were still being detained by the military regime.

The return of Myanmar nationals from Malaysia was a central part of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s about-turn on Oct. 8 when in a joint conference with Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, he laid bare he “wants in” on a rapprochement.

A few days later, a junta spokesperson said Anwar had “shared information” that Indonesia also plans to invite Min Aung Hlaing for an official visit.

However, any regional government that embraces Min Aung Hlaing is betting on a shaky regime.

If Indonesian engagement with Myanmar actors happens, it should also be led by bureaucrats, the involvement of the Indonesian Military (TNI) would not alter the situation for the better.

On Oct. 4, 1,476 Myanmar nationals landed at Thanlyin docks near the commercial capital Yangon. They had been evicted from Malaysia where the harboring of refugees is a right-wing election issue that Anwar is pandering to ahead of an expected early election in 2027 as his ruling coalition melts.

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According to Munira Mustaffa, a senior fellow at Verve Research based in Kuala Lumpur, Anwar might also be on a mission to create a legacy in foreign affairs. Not dissimilar to President Prabowo Subianto’s involvement in global affairs. 

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