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Vietnam, Indonesia can shape the future of ASEAN

As superpower rivalry intensifies, Vietnam's trade engine and Indonesia's diplomatic heft offer Southeast Asia its best shot at shaping the global order instead of getting caught in the crossfire.

Gde Siriana Yusuf (The Jakarta Post)
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Fri, November 13, 2026

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Spark of interest A family takes a close look at Vietnam-made VinFast VF3 electric vehicle during the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) 2026 at Summarecon Mutiara Makassar Convention Center (SMCC), Makassar, South Sulawesi, on Oct. 28, 2026.

Spark of interest A family takes a close look at Vietnam-made VinFast VF3 electric vehicle during the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) 2026 at Summarecon Mutiara Makassar Convention Center (SMCC), Makassar, South Sulawesi, on Oct. 28, 2026. (Antara/Hasrul Said)

V

ietnam’s economic ascent is increasingly translating into a more prominent role in regional and international affairs. In the first 10 months of 2026, the country’s total merchandise trade reached US$1.01 trillion - a 32.3 percent increase year-on-year (yoy) - with exports accounting for approximately $499 billion. This milestone underscores Vietnam’s deep integration into global markets and its emergence as a pivotal actor in international commerce.

Yet trade volume alone does not automatically confer geopolitical sway. Vietnam’s primary strategic challenge is converting its growing economic weight into the institutional capacity to shape regional agendas, contribute to multilateral bodies and influence the norms governing the global economy. Its expanding leadership within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum offers a vital avenue to achieve this.

Vietnam has demonstrated a consistent commitment to APEC, having hosted successful summits in 2006 and 2017 to advance trade facilitation, inclusive growth and human capital development. As it prepares to host APEC again in 2027, Hanoi has signaled an ambition to transition from an active participant to an agenda-setter.

An early marker emerged on Oct. 21, when Vietnam assumed the chairmanship of the APEC Finance Ministers’ Process for 2027. Its priorities - deepening capital markets to mobilize private investment, expanding data-driven financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), diversifying development finance and upskilling youth in financial technologies - address structural challenges shared across the Asia-Pacific.

Domestically, however, Vietnam’s rapid transition reveals vulnerabilities. Between January and September 2026, foreign-invested enterprises accounted for 80.7 percent of the nation's merchandise exports.

While this underscores Vietnam’s attractiveness to foreign direct investment (FDI), it highlights deficits in domestic value creation, indigenous technological capacity and local enterprise competitiveness. Upgrading domestic industrial capabilities and moving into higher-value supply chain segments will be essential if Vietnam is to sustain its development trajectory.

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This domestic imperative intersects with an unforgiving geopolitical landscape. Escalating rivalry between the United States and China is reshaping trade flows, critical technologies and regional security architectures. For Southeast Asian nations, the challenge is not merely balancing ties between two superpowers, but preserving strategic autonomy while safeguarding open commerce and regional peace.

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