Exports are expected to hit 430 million tons in 2021, growing 3.6 percent from this year, but still 8.9 percent below last year’s figure, according to Indonesia Coal Mining Association (APBI) estimates.

However, most of next year’s growth is likely to come in the July-December period, as countries focus on the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the January-June period, said APBI deputy chairman Kurnia Ariawan on Tuesday.

“We think the first half of 2021 will still be highly impacted by the pandemic,” he said at a virtual discussion celebrating APBI’s 31^st anniversary.

“The second half is when we will see real recovery,” added Kurnia, who is also president director of coal mining giant PT Kideco Jaya Agung.

The COVID-19 pandemic has destroyed global energy demand over the past year. Demand fell so much that the Indonesian benchmark coal price (HBA) dropped to a five-year low of $49.42 per ton in September. For comparison, prices averaged around $77.89 per ton last year.

Demand has recovered in the fourth quarter as some economies have reopened, which boosted the HBA to $51 per ton in October, but experts say prices are unlikely to reach 2019 levels even in 2021.

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