I predict we will tend to see the return of the “pivot” strategy in East Asia, mainly because many of Biden’s foreign security experts are the same people from the team in Barack Obama’s administration.

Biden understands that East Asia is now the most strategic region for the US to play a more defining role. Previously under Obama, we expected the US to pivot from the Middle East to East Asia, but that did not happen.

In the meantime, US public opinion about China has changed — from peaceful competitor to unfriendly strategic opponent. I argue that bilateral US-China relations should be a mix of cooperation where needed (for example in environmental, nonproliferation and pandemic issues) or a confrontation where necessary (in unfair trade, intellectual property right, finance, democratic/human rights ideals and military).

I mentioned that it would not be easy for Biden to change US policies in East Asia due to domestic circumstances. Nonetheless, Biden’s continuous effort to unite the American people and cooperate with Congress would be an advantage for him.

From the Southeast Asian perspective, I argue that the best scenario for the region is a balance of power between the US and China.

The US’ external military burden is overwhelming, and she will need more help from her allies, especially Japan and Australia, in the future, and to a lesser extent, support from the Republic of Korea and India because they are more limited domestically. 

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