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Thai election could sway ASEAN’s future Myanmar engagement
While expectations continue to mount on Indonesia as this year’s ASEAN chairman to make breakthroughs in Myanmar, analysts have noted that developments in Thailand, which is set to face an election scheduled for mid-May, will likely affect Myanmar’s future.
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Workers make final preparations on March 27, 2022, at the Bali Nusa Dua Convention Center in Badung, Bali, ahead of the ASEAN Finance Ministers’ and Central Bank Governors Meeting (AFMGM). (Antara/Nyoman Hendra Wibowo)
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mid mounting pressure on Indonesia, this year’s ASEAN chair, to deliver a breakthrough in the Myanmar crisis, analysts say the Thai general election scheduled for mid-May could have a significant impact on the bloc’s actions and Myanmar’s future.
More than two years after the Myanmar military overthrew the country’s democratic leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, ASEAN continues to fail to implement its peace initiative, the Five-Point Consensus (5PC).
Thailand is widely suspected to be a quiet supporter of the Myanmar junta, a stance that has impeded the consensus-led 10-nation bloc.
Both the outcome and the processes of the Thai election could affect the future of ASEAN’s Myanmar engagement, analysts have suggested.
“The democratic process itself will mean a lot. If it can run fairly, with the people of Thailand choosing their leader democratically, then whoever wins could destroy their credibility if they so choose to support the Myanmar junta,” Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a senior international relations analyst from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) told The Jakarta Post.
In less than six weeks, Thailand will see Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the former general who assumed leadership in 2014 after performing a successful military coup, run for reelection.
Under Chan-o-cha’s leadership, Thailand has been adamant about continuing to engage with the Myanmar junta despite calls to refrain from any actions that could undermine ASEAN’s credibility.
