Ethnic minority rebels and "People's Defense Forces" battling to overturn the junta's 2021 coup are riding the wave of a huge offensive launched a year ago Sunday in the hills of neighboring Shan state.

Weeks ago, residents could hear the sounds of clashes along the road that leads out of the country's second city.

"We are afraid of the fighting coming here but we have nowhere to hide," said one man who owns a food shop near the checkpoint and requested anonymity for security reasons.

"Operation 1027", named for its start date, has ejected the junta from around 50,000 square km, an area roughly the size of Bosnia, according to analysts and an AFP tally.

The spoils include a string of towns along a lucrative trade highway to northern neighbor China, along with most of western Rakhine state, home to a proposed Beijing-backed deep-sea port on the Indian Ocean.

Mandalay's capture by the British in 1885 ended the last independent Burmese kingdom and its loss now would be a stunning blow to the junta.

Fighters from the "Mandalay PDF", students, teachers and IT workers who fled the city years ago to join the struggle against the junta, are already in Patheingyi, about five km from the city, according to the group's spokesman Osmond.

"If we can capture Mandalay, we believe that this will make big change in our revolution," he said by phone from an undisclosed location.

Last month, an unidentified group launched a rocket attack on the city, damaging several buildings. Last week, the Chinese consulate was hit by an explosion, drawing a stern protest from Beijing, a major arms supplier and ally of the junta.

A fruit vendor waits for customers at a night market in Mandalay on Oct. 23, 2024. On the outskirts of Mandalay nervous Myanmar soldiers man a checkpoint just kilometers away from rebels who have set their sights on the former royal capital of 1.5 million people. (AFP/-)

In the city's bustling, dusty downtown, there are few soldiers on the streets and police rarely venture out from stations barricaded with concrete and sandbags.

"Mandalay is not well-protected at all," said one former local politician, who also requested anonymity to talk to the media. "Where can we go if there is war in Mandalay? We just have to die here."

China card

The sustained success of "Operation 1027" has buoyed the dozens of PDF groups that sprung up to fight the military, whose coup plunged the country into more than three years of brutal civil war. 

But replicating its advances in the central plains around Mandalay will prove a challenge, independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson told AFP.

The terrain is "prime territory" for the junta to press its advantages in air power and artillery, he said, while fighting in a sprawling, urban area is a complication.

Whether the ethnic rebel alliance that spearheaded "Operation 1027" would join any assault on the city, which is far from its bases in the borderlands, remains unclear.

And looming over that question is China.

Beijing maintains ties with the ethnic rebel groups that operate along its border, which it sees as useful as leverage in its relations with the junta. Analysts say Beijing gave "Operation 1027" a green light on the condition it dismantled any online scam compounds located in territory it took in Shan state.

Such compounds are typically run by Chinese nationals and staffed by people from China and other countries who were often trafficked and forced to work swindling their compatriots.

Red line

Beijing is now trying to prevent the alliance from making more gains that could further diminish the junta, said Jason Tower of the United States Institute for Peace.

Toppling the military is "a clear red line" for China, he told AFP.

The rebel alliance, made up of the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), did not respond to AFP requests for comment.

Women walk past security barricades on a road in Mandalay on Oct. 24, 2024. On the outskirts of Mandalay nervous Myanmar soldiers man a checkpoint just kilometers away from rebels who have set their sights on the former royal capital of 1.5 million people. (AFP/-)

Beijing has closed several of its border crossings that provide revenue to the rebel groups, and cut internet, water and power supplies to enclaves along its border. 

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is expected to visit China next month, in what would be his first trip to his most important ally since the coup, and Tower said that Beijing had made it clear it wanted the military to prevail.

The Mandalay PDF fighters in the plains outside their home city have their own goals. 

"Capturing Mandalay is one of our most strategic military objectives," said spokesman Osmond. "But we don't plan to reveal when we will do this operation."