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COP26: With or without Joe, Jinping
Given the gravity of the problem, a half deal is still better than no deal at all.
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It's hot in here: Activists symbolically set George Square on fire with an art installation of faux flames and smoke ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), in Glasgow, Scotland, Oct. 28. (Reuters)
D
eal or no deal? That’s the question that delegates from nearly 200 countries gathering in the Scottish town of Glasgow beginning on Sunday will have to answer as they hammer out a new international agreement to stem global warming. Much depends on China and the United States, the two top emitters of carbon dioxide that cause world temperature to rise.
Known as the26th Conference of Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the gathering will see whether 120 leaders will give their endorsement of whatever agreement the conference comes up with. That is just the problem: There may be no agreement as delegates are still gulfs apart.
The target is to get as many countries as possible to pledge — backed by credible plans — to work toward net-zero emissions, meaning that they have to aggressively cut emissions to the same level as they put into it, by 2050.
This is what climate scientists believe is needed to stem the rise in world temperatures to within 1.5 degrees Celsius. Anything less would be catastrophic, according to a 2021 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published in August.
The second part of the deal is for wealthy countries to help finance poor countries reach their net-zero targets.
As tough as these targets seem, many delegates still hope there will be a deal of some sort. They have until Nov. 12, when the meeting ends.
US President Joe Biden left Washington for the summit without securing Congress' support for his plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Whatever he promises in Glasgow, we should take it with a grain of salt whether or not he will have the ability to deliver.
There is also the question of whether the US will be consistent in its commitment. Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, took the US out of the COP21 deal signed in Paris in 2015 when nations agreed to work toward curtailing emissions to stem the increase in global temperatures to within 2 degrees.
China’s leader Xi Jinping is not attending, but his top climate change negotiator will be on hand. Xi faces pressure at home in coming up with a credible plan to meet the carbon neutrality target when China continues to build coal-fired power plants to drive its economy. His absence in Glasgow makes it harder for the world to hold on to whatever China pledges.
This should not be taken to mean that there can be no deal without these two giants. With or without China andUS participation, as many countries as possible should sign the agreement.
Given the gravity of the problem, a half deal is still better than no deal at all. If enough countries sign up for the agreement, hopefully, this will put strong pressure on the laggards to fall in line. Or at least, put them to shame.
The climate conference desperately needs a global leader, and this means leading by example. If China or the US will not rise to the challenge, then other countries should step in. In the end, every country should contribute to the endeavor to save the Earth.
Rather than waiting for others to show the way, countries should take the initiative to lead.
