The decision of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the country’s largest Muslim group, to change its East Java branch leader has highlighted the province’s crucial role in the upcoming presidential election, analysts have said.

Home to 40 million people, East Java is the second most populous province after West Java, and it is known to be NU’s traditional stronghold, which analysts say is a powerful force in deciding the outcome of presidential elections.

On Monday, leaders of the NU central executive board (PBNU) officially appointed Abdul Hakim Mahfudz or Gus Kikin, the great-grandson of renowned ulema and organization founder Hasyim Asy’ari, to lead its East Java branch.

Gus Kikin took over the role from influential cleric Marzuki Mustamar.

Marzuki was removed after National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman and vice presidential candidate Muhaimin Iskandar posted on social media a clip featuring Marzuki suggesting that santri (Islamic boarding school students) were welcomed to support the candidate and his running mate Anies Baswedan.

Muhaimin leads the PKB, the country’s most popular Muslim-based party, which was founded by NU members and is part of an electoral alliance backing Anies and Muhaimin in the upcoming election.

Under the leadership of current chair Yahya Cholil Staquf, who forged a close tie with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, the PBNU has vowed to stay neutral in the 2024 election. But analysts said the pledge does not exclude them from tacitly endorsing candidates or applying pressure to certain candidates behind the scenes.

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