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ncient Javanese with the ability to look into the future used to talk about "iron horses". That was long before the train plied the beautiful hinterlands of Java.

They might have talked about "iron buffaloes" as well. And how these buffaloes are being herded in their inter-province trips as they do today. As in previous years, the police are herding thousands of motorcyclists making the trip home this week.

An estimated 4 million motorbikes have deserted Jakarta, leaving about half a million behind. Car drivers are relieved because they don't have to swim in the sea of motorbikes like they usually do for at least a week.

Herding a group of buffaloes in a village is handy, given the slow speeds of the animal and the manageable traffic on the rural dirt roads. But escorting thousands of motorbikes on intercity trips on highways? Speed and numerical reasons factor in.

A thousand motorcyclists will form a half-kilometer line and move faster than buffaloes. How to escort them safely without disrupting the flow of traffic? This defies logic.

Departing at night is an option, but what about children who have to brave the night wind while staying awake all night. This is certainly not a decent mode of transportation.

How do you escort 4 million motorcyclists? Assuming those traveling with the police are safe, how many are risking their lives by traveling unescorted? How many human lives will be lost this year? Still, many take the risk for economic reasons.

Compared to buses and trains, traveling by motorbike proves less costly for many. Despite the dwindling number of passengers in the last few years, public transportation, particularly buses, still impose stiff fares. Apart from going against economic principles, this has also deterred potential passengers.

The police's efforts to escort motorcyclists and set up special lanes for them are something to be commended. They are trying to do their best in answering a daunting task, but it is hard not to view it as a superficial solution.

The core issue is the absence of an integrated public transportation system, as people try to fulfill their transportation needs individually.

Multiply 4 million motorbikes by Rp 5 million, a conservative figure for the price of a motorbike, and you get Rp 20,000 trillion (US$2 trillion). This can buy 10,000 train cars or 10 times the total number of economy-class cars owned by the state railway operator.

Reduce this figure by half and offset the money for maintenance costs, and the government can rid itself of the headache of rejuvenating a quarter of its decrepit train cars. Provincial governments need only to lay out the railway tracks.

The government says it is providing 36 million seats on sea, air and land public transportation, versus an estimated 16 million users nationwide this year. This sounds rosy as the official figures of all mudikers, those making the homebound trips, accounts for only 27 million.

Jakarta's story of transportation mirrors that of the country.

Fifteen hundred new motorbikes enter the capital every day, compared to 250 new cars, according to 2008 government data.

The total number of motorized vehicles plying the mere 5,600 kilometers of road in Jakarta is more than 7 million, with motorcycles making up the bulk at 4.5 million.

Jakarta's streets grow by an incremental 0.01 percent a year, compared to the nearly 10 percent annual increase in motor vehicles.

Traffic experts predict that Jakarta will totally gridlocked by 2014. Motorists will hit a jammed street right after leaving their garages. Other experts have a more pessimistic calculation, putting the year 2011 as the year of total jams. That's less than two years from now.

A 1998 study by the National Development Planning Board estimated the cost wasted on fuel due to Jakarta's massive traffic jams amounted to Rp 14.7 trillion annually. The waste must be much bigger today.

Unless drastic measures are taken, it is difficult not to stop the waste from this totally inefficient transportation system.

Conspicuously missing here is a long-term plan from the Transportation Ministry for holiday travelers. There is no excuse for planners since the surge of passengers is predictable both in terms of timing (every Idul Fitri holiday) and number (running into the millions).

Judging from the chronic nature of the problem and the failure of successive Jakarta governors to address it, it is time to set up a special body directly responsible to the president to rectify Jakarta's transportation woes. Or else, entertain the long-time proposal to elevate the position of Jakarta governor to a ministerial level to enable him to tackle obstacles beyond provincial level.