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Economic chiefs forecast GDP growth of more than 6% in Q2
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Finance Minister Sri Mulyani (second left) talks with Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo (second right), Financial Services Authority board of commissioners chairman Wimboh Santoso (left) and Indonesian Deposit Insurance commissioner Destry Damayanti after addressing the media on economic conditions in Jakarta.
(Antara/Galih Pradipta )
T
op government officials forecast Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow between 6.5 and 8.3 percent in the second quarter this year as the country is expected to book its first year-on-year (yoy) GDP growth since the COVID-19 pandemic struck.
The finance minister, the Bank Indonesia (BI) governor and the coordinating economic minister announced their respective growth forecasts over the course of May. Their forecasts vary, but all are above 6 percent, a figure unseen since 2013, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data shows.
The officials expect the recovery to occur on the back of rising consumer spending and investment more than a year into the COVID-19 pandemic. BPS is slated to deliver the official GDP report for the second quarter in early August.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, providing the most optimistic forecast, said the country’s GDP was expected to grow between 7.1 and 8.3 percent in the second quarter. The range reflected the pandemic-induced uncertainty that still plagued the country.
“It is the contribution from consumer spending that will still grow, especially with the fasting and Idul Fitri momentum, even though there was no mudik (exodus),” Sri Mulyani said at an online press conference on Tuesday.
“We also expect investment to rebound in line with various indicators, from electricity to cement, steel and commercial vehicle [sales]. Our exports also surged very high in April, and we expect that momentum to continue until June.”
The unusually high growth forecast for the April-to-June period this year is largely a result of the base effect, after the steep decline in economic activity early in the pandemic saw the country’s GDP contract 5.32 percent yoy in the second quarter, according to BPS data. The country has never posted growth as high as 7 percent yoy in more than a decade.
