Add to the cauldron a potent mix of terrorism, extremism and radicalism, and we get a nexus of activities, events and happenings that only make matters worse for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the rest of the world. The situation only gets trickier for a country like India, which, by way of its geographical proximity to the infamous “golden crescent”, the world’s largest producer of illicit opium, often finds itself reeling under the impact of narco-terrorism.

A combination of two nefarious realities, i.e. narcotics trafficking and terrorism/extremism, narco-terrorism has become a source of constant social and legal troubles, particularly in Afghanistan and the areas jutting its border with Pakistan. The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 is only expected to make matters worse, knowing that the former insurgent group has been deriving most of its revenues through illicit opium trade.

Given the continuing international freeze on Afghanistan’s economic assets and the little financial support the country is receiving from its erstwhile donors, it is only likely that the production of drugs and its illegal sale and purchase will witness an uptick in the days to come.

In fact, in the clear absence of any significant international monetary support, it will not be surprising if more and more farmers in Afghanistan turn towards poppy cultivation to generate income for themselves. In a country where the illicit opium economy had once created revenue equivalent to US$1.2-2.1 billion, or 7-11 percent of Afghanistan’s GDP in 2019, the economic temptation of indulging in illicit drug trade can become hard to resist.

For that matter, the Taliban, which is currently in charge of Afghanistan's political and economic institutions, too is expected further to increase the cultivation of poppies in their drought-ridden country to keep itself in power. Apart from being one of its major sources of income, which the Taliban may not abandon anytime soon, the rising instability in Afghanistan and the increasing schisms within the Taliban can provide further impetus to the production of and trade in drugs, particularly as frictions over control and styles of governance could make the leaders within this puritanical group to turn to poppy cultivation to finance their own coteries and agenda.

In these circumstances, the Taliban’s anticipated push for opium trade on the whole, combined with its documented support to terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda, can make the phenomenon of narco-terrorism a more lethal challenge for the world.

Today, narco-terrorism circuits have transcended many a region to become a global reality, so much so that the drugs produced and refined in the global crescent are known to have sponsored extremist activities in countries beyond South Asia. In fact, according to a recent report by NATO, the opium channeled through the drug pipeline said to be originating in Afghanistan reaches 84 percent of the world.

It is important to note that narco-terrorism is both a cause and effect of political, social and economic insecurity, which creates a conducive environment for various non-state actors to use drug trafficking and extremism to attain their objectives. It is no surprise that states that are either classified as failed or are considered to be failing at delivering the basic goods and services to their citizens often become the hubs for illegal drug trade and the perpetuation of violent extremism.

In fact, in areas marred by a general level of insecurity, such as the borderlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan, the line of distinction between drug trafficking organizations (DTO) and groups that promote religious extremism is often found to be blurred to the effect of giving rise to entities like the Taliban that use narco-terrorism to further their agenda.

Abetted by systems such as the hawala in the past, narco-terrorism has come to be aided by developments in financial technologies in the present. For instance, the blockchain technology, cryptocurrencies and the like have provided drug trafficking organizations with newer ways to trade in narcotics while allowing them to conceal (the nature of their) proceedings to prevent detections.

According to NATO, these techniques have also been adopted by terrorist entities, reducing further the gap in the operationalities between them and DTO. However, one must not forget that often these non-state actors work in cahoots with other segments of the society, including corrupt state officials, farmers and laborers, warlords and the like, which make the drug-terrorism nexus an institution that is difficult to dismantle.

In other words, it is not just the DTOs or terrorist entities as such which are responsible for the perpetuation of narco-terrorism, but also the larger scheme of affairs where political insecurity, economic instability and other geopolitical and domestic factors come together to further entrench narco-terrorism in any given society.

With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban last year, the cessation of international financial support, and an evident decline in global interest in this conflict-ridden country, the phenomenon of narco-terrorism will take on a newer shape. In fact, as per a recent assessment, narco-terrorism may have already witnessed a massive shift in its operationalities, having moved away from older transaction methods to those that are based on newer fintech.

Similarly, the gap created by the lack of human intelligence in Afghanistan will impact the international operations against drug trafficking and terrorism, necessitating the global community to devise newer and more effective monitoring and other techniques to counter the ills of narco-terrorism.

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The writer is a President Graduate fellow and final year PhD candidate at the Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, with doctoral research on the socio-spatial negotiations of the Afghan refugees and migrants in the Indian cities of New Delhi and Kolkata.