Young people aged between 17 and 39, who will make up 54 percent of voters in 2024, want a president who can make significant changes and they don’t think 70-year Prabowo Subianto, despite his huge popularity, is their man. In scenarios of two- and three-horse races involving Prabowo, they would instead vote for either Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo or Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, both 53, shows a survey by the Jakarta-based think tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 

Prabowo leads in popularity among all public figures touted for the 2024 presidential election, according to the CSIS survey, perhaps unsurprisingly: He ran in 2014 and 2019 and lost both times to Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, and now serves as defense minister in Jokowi’s Cabinet. But being the most popular figure will not necessarily translate into votes, the survey notes.

In the CSIS survey of 14 candidates, Ganjar would win ahead of both Prabowo and Anies if the election were held today. In a potential runoff of the same three candidates, which is constitutionally mandated to ensure the winner has over 50 percent of votes, Prabowo would lose to both Ganjar and Anies, while Anies would beat Ganjar in a face-off.

If so, should Prabowo quit the race? Maybe not, as the margin of victory in both the two- and three-horse scenarios are not big, and he is also counting on older voters to get him in the presidential chair. But he must also be prepared for disappointment to go down in history as a three-time loser.

The CSIS survey was held in August and polled 1,200 respondents of the Generation Z (aged 17-24) and millennial (24-39) groups in all 34 provinces.

These two groups include first-time voters and will have a significant but not conclusive impact on determining the outcome in 2024. More importantly, the survey sheds some light on their aspirations and political preferences, which are not necessarily in line with those of older voters. Presidential hopefuls should therefore take note.

Prabowo has already announced he is running on the ticket of his party Gerindra, which has formed an alliance with the Nation Awakening Party (PKB). Anies has gained the formal backing of the National Democratic Party (NasDem), but he needs additional support from another party or two be eligible to run.

Despite his popularity, Ganjar has not yet gained any party backing. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of which he is a member, is still holding back on declaring its candidate. PDI-P chair Megawati Soekarnoputri refuses to be rushed into a decision while giving her daughter Puan Maharani, who chairs the PDI-P’s central board and is also the House of Representatives Speaker, the chance to build her electability. Puan has very low ratings across all surveys, including the latest CSIS survey, in which Puan ranks 10^th out of 14 potential contenders, and seventh out of seven.

What’s more

The formal registration of candidates with the General Elections Commission runs from Oct. 19 to Nov. 25 next year, so parties still have more than a year to make up their minds. Only parties or groups of parties that meet the threshold of winning more than 25 percent of votes or 20 percent of House seats during the 2019 legislative election may nominate a president and a vice president. By this rule, only the PDI-P is eligible to nominate a candidate pair, so all other parties will have to form an alliance to fulfill the presidential nomination threshold.

This means that at most four candidate pairs can be in the running in 2024, though three pairs is more likely. And unless we end up with a two-horse race like in 2014 and 2019, a runoff will have be needed to determine the winner, like in the 2009 and 2004 elections.

The CSIS survey shows that young voters aren’t all that different from older voters when it comes to their preference for political parties: the PDI-P comes out on top, followed by Gerindra and Golkar, in line with the 2019 election results. The Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which debuted in 2019 as the “millennials’ party”, ranks 11^th in the survey.

As for their aspirations, young voters clearly want change from the next president, with the three most important competencies they sought in a candidate being “the ability to make change”, followed by “the ability to lead in times of crisis” and “the ability to make innovative policies”.

The key qualities they sought in a candidate were led by “honesty/not corrupt”, followed by “popular and simple” and “firm/integrity”. Religious piety, often said to be the most important quality among conservative voters, ranks seventh among young voters, just ahead of smart/intelligent in eighth.

As for key strategic issues, the top three for young voters are “public welfare”, “jobs” and “corruption eradication”.

President Jokowi possesses many of the qualities sought by young voters, with 74 percent of respondents acknowledging his success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, they overwhelmingly rejected the idea of extending his term beyond 2024, with 86 percent of respondents adamant that the maximum 10-year limit set by the Constitution must be retained.

This reinforces the overarching indication in the CSIS survey that young voters definitely want change.

Download the PPT presentation on the results of the CSIS survey here

What we’ve heard

Several people close to NasDem chairman, Surya Paloh, said the party accelerated Anies’ declaration after seeing the development of the Formula E case at the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).

NasDem politicians monitored the progress of KPK’s investigation of the case after it was reported by Koran Tempo. KPK chairman Firli Bahuri had encouraged the Formula E investigation team to name Anies as a suspect. "The declaration is closely related to the investigation of the Formula E case," said a NasDem executive.

This source said that on Oct. 2, at a time when the Formula E case began being discussed by the public, Paloh was actually in Singapore to seek medical treatment. He returned to Indonesia that day and asked his party to declare Anies’ presidential candidacy the next day. Following this, NasDem invited a number of officials from the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) to NasDem tower to inform them of the declaration. Both parties gave the green light for NasDem to be the first one to declare Anies.

In addition to being declared by NasDem, Anies is also close to Pemuda Pancasila. On Oct. 1, he visited the organization’s meeting and was greeted by calls for him to run as a presidential candidate. One of the figures who brought Anies to Pemuda Pancasila was People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) deputy chairman Bambang Soesatyo, who is also the deputy chairman of Pemuda Pancasila.

"Bambang helped Anies organize Formula E," said this source.

Anies' relationship with Pemuda Pancasila grew closer after he assisted in the licensing of the organization’s new headquarters on Jalan Cik Ditiro in the Central Jakarta upmarket area of Menteng. The headquarters’ development process made Anies frequently interact with Pemuda Pancasila’s general chairman Japto Soerjosoemarno.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access our latest edition to read the articles listed below:

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