The NasDem Party has made its opening election gambit by declaring former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan its chosen candidate for the 2024 presidential race. It is a strategy that could pay off handsomely if Anies goes on to win, but it is also a move that has triggered challenges to the party’s standing in the run-up to the general elections. Anies’ nomination is by no means certain. NasDem, or rather Anies, has to secure the support of at least two other parties to clinch the presidential ticket.

NasDem, which came fifth in only its second participation in the general elections in 2019, is a member of the seven-party coalition government under President Joko “Jokowi’ Widodo. Many in the coalition and members of Jokowi’s inner circle are putting pressure on the President to expel NasDem from the coalition, arguing that given the animosity between Jokowi and Anies, the party’s move is nothing short of a betrayal.

Anies, a political scientist by training, helped Jokowi, a furniture business owner, win the 2014 presidential election, playing an effective role as a spokesman articulating the thoughts of the man-of-few-words candidate. He was rewarded with the education minister post, but within nine months, the two fell apart. Anies was fired from the cabinet. Anies then plunged into politics and ran for the Jakarta gubernatorial election in 2017, challenging and beating incumbent Basoeki “Ahok” Tjahaka Purnama, who had succeeded Jokowi when the latter became president in 2014.

NasDem supported Jokowi’s nomination both in 2014 and 2019, although as a new party, and as important as its contribution was, it was small compared with the other parties. But with the 2024 election fast approaching, and with Jokowi constitutionally barred from running for a third term, NasDem has opted for Anies, becoming the first party to declare support for his presidential bid shortly after he stepped down from the governorship in October.

Pundits said the absence of Jokowi during NasDem’s anniversary this month was the strongest sign of his displeasure with the party. Although his office said the President was attending the ASEAN summit in Cambodia, he could at least have left a recorded video congratulatory message, as he has done with many other organizations.

A few days earlier, in an off-the-cuff remark, Jokowi said 2024 would be the turn of defense minister Prabowo Subianto to win, a statement interpreted by many as a ringing endorsement for the founding chair of Gerindra party and two-time presidential election loser, both times to Jokowi. Taking up this statement, NasDem chairman Surya Paloh quipped that Jokowi should also say that it would be the turn of Anies. Nothing of the sort happened nor the awaited congratulatory video message for NasDem’s anniversary.

What’s more

The secular-nationalist party is not without political leverage to make the move that many consider a bold betrayal of the President. Surya is owner of the all-news channel Metro TV who built the party from scratch in 2011. After coming fifth, beating older and more established parties in 2019, it has now set its target to make it to the top three in the 2024 general elections. Endorsing Anies’ candidacy is part of this calculated strategy.

All polls put Anies among the three most popular figures for 2024, alongside Prabowo and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. Anies cannot beat Ganjar in a three-horse race that also involves Prabowo, but in the runoff against Ganjar, many polls predict he would win since most of Prabowo supporters would give him their vote. This will be a repeat of the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial race, where Anies lost to incumbent Ahok in the first round, but went on to win in the deciding round.

It remains to be seen whether declaring support for Anies would bring in the votes. Anies lost many friends and supporters when he coddled with Muslim conservatives, particularly the Islam Defenders Front (FPI), now defunct, to win the 2017 gubernatorial race. When NasDem declared its support for Anies in October, some party members, mostly non-Muslims, quit. The party has gained support, particularly in Sumatra, from people who had supported Prabowo in 2019 but felt betrayed when he joined Jokowi’s Cabinet.

NasDem’s support for Jokowi in 2019 was rewarded with two strategic cabinet posts: the communications and information minister post and the environment and forestry minister post. Staying in the coalition gives political parties access to power and money through the government agencies they manage. NasDem has no intention of leaving the coalition.

Responding to his critics, Surya appeared on his Metro TV to publicly pledge NasDem’s loyalty to Jokowi to the end of his term in 2024. But does NasDem think it can cut the cake and eat it too? This is up to Jokowi.

What we’ve heard

The relationship between President Joko Widodo and NasDem chairman Surya Paloh has become strained after the party declared former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan its presidential candidate. During NasDem’s anniversary celebration, President Jokowi was absent as he had to attend the ASEAN summit. However previously, Jokowi attended the anniversary celebration of Perindo, which has no seat in the House of Representatives.

Jokowi himself uttered his dislike with Anies’ candidacy by NasDem when they met Anies at the State Palace on Oct. 21. Anies shared this story with a number of people close to him. During the meeting, according to Anies, Jokowi alluded to Paloh’s role in the declaration. “It was not Mas Anies’ fault for wanting to make a quick declaration,” said the President.

The declaration is believed to have an implication for NasDem’s seats in the cabinet. However, Jokowi considers the electoral effect that will arise if Nasdem is kicked out of the cabinet.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access our latest edition to read the articles listed below:

Politics

1. Nasdem’s election gambit with Anies nomination
2. Assessing Jokowi’s influence on the 2024 election
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1. Govt changes minimum wage calculation formula to please unions
2. N. Sumatra businessman elected Hipmi chair in a violent congress
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