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Analysis: NasDem’s election gambit with Anies nomination
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President Joko “Jokowi“ Widodo (left) and NasDem Party chairman Surya Paloh talk during a meeting on Nov. 22, 2018. (Antara/Yudhi Mahatma)
The NasDem Party has made its opening election gambit by declaring former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan its chosen candidate for the 2024 presidential race. It is a strategy that could pay off handsomely if Anies goes on to win, but it is also a move that has triggered challenges to the party’s standing in the run-up to the general elections. Anies’ nomination is by no means certain. NasDem, or rather Anies, has to secure the support of at least two other parties to clinch the presidential ticket.
NasDem, which came fifth in only its second participation in the general elections in 2019, is a member of the seven-party coalition government under President Joko “Jokowi’ Widodo. Many in the coalition and members of Jokowi’s inner circle are putting pressure on the President to expel NasDem from the coalition, arguing that given the animosity between Jokowi and Anies, the party’s move is nothing short of a betrayal.
Anies, a political scientist by training, helped Jokowi, a furniture business owner, win the 2014 presidential election, playing an effective role as a spokesman articulating the thoughts of the man-of-few-words candidate. He was rewarded with the education minister post, but within nine months, the two fell apart. Anies was fired from the cabinet. Anies then plunged into politics and ran for the Jakarta gubernatorial election in 2017, challenging and beating incumbent Basoeki “Ahok” Tjahaka Purnama, who had succeeded Jokowi when the latter became president in 2014.
NasDem supported Jokowi’s nomination both in 2014 and 2019, although as a new party, and as important as its contribution was, it was small compared with the other parties. But with the 2024 election fast approaching, and with Jokowi constitutionally barred from running for a third term, NasDem has opted for Anies, becoming the first party to declare support for his presidential bid shortly after he stepped down from the governorship in October.
Pundits said the absence of Jokowi during NasDem’s anniversary this month was the strongest sign of his displeasure with the party. Although his office said the President was attending the ASEAN summit in Cambodia, he could at least have left a recorded video congratulatory message, as he has done with many other organizations.
A few days earlier, in an off-the-cuff remark, Jokowi said 2024 would be the turn of defense minister Prabowo Subianto to win, a statement interpreted by many as a ringing endorsement for the founding chair of Gerindra party and two-time presidential election loser, both times to Jokowi. Taking up this statement, NasDem chairman Surya Paloh quipped that Jokowi should also say that it would be the turn of Anies. Nothing of the sort happened nor the awaited congratulatory video message for NasDem’s anniversary.
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