Newly installed Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga visited Jakarta on Oct. 20-21 to hold talks with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo on developments in the South China Sea and the FOIP, among other topics. While Indonesia remains neutral, Vietnam, the other Southeast Asian country on Suga’s first overseas trip as PM, has been embroiled in a territorial dispute with China and is the most outspoken supporter of increased American presence to balance China’s growing assertiveness in the region.

After Suga is US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is carrying a similar message to the Indonesian leadership as he sets foot on Jakartan soil today. Indonesia is the only Southeast Asian country on Pompeo’s Asian tour. The other countries are India, which is fast becoming the US’ most important ally in the Indo-Pacific, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, two South Asian countries that recently saw power tussles between political forces backed respectively by India and China.

Pompeo’s visit comes on the heels of an invitation the US Department of Defense extended to Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto to come visit. Prabowo had been barred since Reformasi in 1998 from entering the US for his human rights record, so his Pentagon visit was seen as the US taking that extra mile to tempt Indonesia into entering a sort of de facto alliance to counter the rise of China.

Interestingly, reports prior to Pompeo’s visit say that Jakarta rejected Washington’s request to allow American spy planes on surveillance and intelligence-gathering missions in the South China Sea to refuel at an Indonesian air base. This seems to correspond with the Pentagon’s earlier reports that China had proposed building a logistical facility for its Navy in Indonesia, but that Indonesia strongly and publicly turned it down.

Naturally, China has reacted strongly to the recent diplomatic maneuvers by the US and its allies. Even though the Chinese appear to be awaiting the results of the US presidential election on Nov. 3, we can anticipate the diplomatic countermoves China might take in the near future, especially with regard to Indonesia.

Amid the mounting pressures from the major powers, it is apparent that Indonesia is not entirely comfortable with having to make tough choices. As Indonesia is in desperate need of fresh foreign investment to help recover its economy, post-pandemic, Chinese investment seems to be the most obvious choice.

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