The study, conducted by Asia Society Australia and supported by the Australian Department of Defense, examined how five maritime Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia, would respond to an open conflict between major powers. They assessed each country’s foreign policy, economic and security alignments, as well as domestic factors shaping their international positioning.

Drawing on a two-year analysis based on interviews with experts and retired officials, the report found Indonesia to be likely to struggle to maintain its non-aligned stance in the event of an open conflict. 

“The President’s significant influence over foreign policy, combined with institutional limitations stemming from budget constraints, shapes a pragmatic approach that treats China as an indispensable economic partner and the [United States] as its most trusted security partner,” the authors wrote in the study issued in May.

“Under conflict conditions, however,” they continued,” this balance becomes more precarious.”

Under its long-standing “free and active” foreign policy, Indonesia has sought to maintain strategic neutrality in navigating power rivalries, with successive administrations varying in how they balanced relations with China and the US, depending on their policy priorities.

Former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, for example, was widely perceived as placing greater emphasis on ties with China, with his economic and infrastructure-driven agenda frequently aligning with Beijing’s initiatives.

Popular

Three Kalimantan orangutans released into wild

Split court hands Nadiem 10 years in prison

Forest, people sacrificed in Sebangau