The study, conducted by the Indonesian Institute for Foreign Affairs (IIFA), surveyed 151 foreign policy experts worldwide in June and July, amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. Most respondents had more than a decade of experience in academia or policy institutes. 

About one-third of respondents were based in Southeast Asia, while North American and Europe each accounted for roughly one-fifth of the pool. More than 70 percent of participants were men. 

An overwhelming majority of respondents held what the study described as a “strongly realist worldview”, with nearly 89 percent agreeing that traditional security was a primary driver of state behavior. More than 85 percent also agreed that institutions reflected the interests of powerful states.

Only 38 percent believed international rules could meaningfully constrain states. Respondents from middle and low-income countries, as categorized by the World Bank, were slightly more likely than those from high-income countries to hold that view. 

“This expert respondents’ collective worldview is thus heavily realist: power and security are seen as the primary drivers of international outcomes, while formal rules are seen as comparatively weak constraints,” the study said. 

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