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View all search resultsBI projects 5.3% GDP growth for 2026
Inflation is projected to remain within the current target range of 1.5 to 3.5 percent for the next two years, while loan growth is expected to reach 8 to 12 percent in 2026.
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Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo speaks during the annual meeting of Indonesia's central bank with financial stakeholders on Nov. 30, in Jakarta. (Reuters/Willy Kurniawan)
B
ank Indonesia (BI) has projected Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by around 5.3 percent year-on-year in 2026, supported by rising consumption and investment.
BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said during the 2025 BI Annual Meeting on Friday that the national economy remained “resilient,” maintaining stability with relatively high growth despite a series of global shocks.
“Inshallah [God willing], Indonesia’s economic performance in 2026 and 2027 will improve. [GDP] growth will be higher, consumption and investment will increase. Exports will remain relatively strong amid the global economic slowdown,” Perry said.
The central bank governor did not mention the exact target range BI projected for next year in his speech, but the presentation deck showed that Indonesia’s GDP was expected to grow within a range of 4.9 to 5.7 percent in 2026, placing 5.3 percent at the midpoint, and increase to between 5.1 and 5.9 percent in 2027.
He outlined several assumptions underpinning the projection, including contained inflation, a stable rupiah exchange rate, adequate foreign exchange reserves and growing bank lending.
Inflation is projected to remain within the current target range of 1.5 to 3.5 percent for the next two years, while loan growth is expected to reach 8 to 12 percent in 2026 and 9 to 13 percent in 2027, according to Perry’s deck.
Loan growth has hovered around 7 percent since June, which is weak compared with last year’s average of 11.6 percent, even though an election year like 2024 typically sees businesses take a cautious stance toward new investment and delay borrowing until conditions stabilize.
