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Bond yields jump, oil extends gains as US-Iran ceasefire expires

Gregor Stuart Hunter (Reuters)
Singapore
Tue, August 18, 2026

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People walk on a street in Tehran on Aug. 3, 2026. People walk on a street in Tehran on Aug. 3, 2026. (Reuters/WANA/Majid Asgaripour)

B

ond yields climbed on Tuesday to their highest in decades, with oil prices rising for a third day, while stocks gave up early gains in Asian trade as a US-Iran truce expired and Tehran threatened to adopt a "fully offensive" military posture.

The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond rose as much as 1.1 basis points to an intraday high of 5.321 percent, its highest in almost 20 years. Its 10-year counterpart traded up 0.4 basis point at 4.724 percent.

"Typically, moves above 4.65 percent for the US 10-year have been followed by some soothing words from the Trump administration, typically centered on an imminent resolution to the war with Iran," ING analysts wrote in a note.

"This time, we're not hearing the same," they added. "In fact, the latest indications are for no imminent resolution as the shaky 60-day truce came to an end."

S&P 500 e-mini futures slumped 0.2 percent as MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 0.3 percent, reversing early gains as stocks in Taiwan and China weighed on the benchmark.

South Korea's KOSPI erased an early gain of more than 3 percent as the Seoul market returned after a holiday to trade flat, while the Nikkei 225 fell 1.6 percent.

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Brent crude futures edged up 0.4 percent to $91.20 a barrel as a rally in oil prices extended into a third consecutive day in Asian trade.

"The big focus in global macro is the increase and stickiness in longer-end developed market yields, and in particular a relentless sell-off in US Treasuries," MUFG analysts wrote in a research report.

As the recent global selloff in bonds deepened, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose 2 basis points to 2.94 percent, a three-decade high.

Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 slipped 0.5 percent while the Nasdaq Composite edged 0.3 percent lower as soft US economic data, including an unexpected drop in retail sales, led traders to reduce bets on an imminent Fed interest rate move.

"Markets adopted a generally risk-off tone as President Trump reaffirmed he was not interested in extending the truce with Iran," Westpac analysts wrote in a research note.

The US dollar index, a measures of the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.1 percent at 99.60, pulling back from a two-month low.

Gold was down 0.3 percent at $4,402.89, snapping a two-day winning streak.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether were both down 0.3 percent at $64,159.76 and $1,899.34 respectively.

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