Prabowo's popularity was not just a residual effect of his 2024 election win. Social spending, above all the free nutritious meal program launched in January 2025, helped extend an unusually long stretch of goodwill.  SMRC recorded his approval at 81.2 percent as late as November 2025, and he held territory in the 70s to 80s range through most of that year: a level that his predecessor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo did not even reach until deep into his second term, when SMRC clocked his highest-ever rating at 81.7 percent in May 2023.

By contrast, Jokowi's first term began at a similar starting point but collapsed early: Indikator data show his approval fell from 62 percent at inauguration to just 41 percent shortly after, following a costly fuel price hike. Prabowo has not suffered anything like that early crash. But no honeymoon lasts forever, and the July 2026 numbers simply show democratic normalcy reasserting itself.

The comparison looks even better relative to recent American presidents. Trump's second term began in January 2025 with a historically low 47 percent approval while Obama and Biden both saw early, steep declines from their opening highs, but none came close to Prabowo's plateau of 70-80 percent.

A decline in popularity a year and a half into a term is not a crisis; it is closer to the rule than the exception. What usually drives this is a widening gap between campaign promises and delivered results: Prabowo’s pledges to curb corruption and lift GDP growth from 5 to 8 percent are now being tested against a weak rupiah, a sluggish stock market and concerns over state spending and central bank independence.

The July 2026 survey from SMRC, conducted on July 5-19 and involving 749 respondents, found 51.1 percent satisfaction with Prabowo's performance, down from 81.2 percent in November 2025, while dissatisfaction rose to 46.9 percent from roughly 16 percent. SMRC executive director Deni Irvani attributed the drop to worsening public perceptions across three areas, as summarized in the table below.

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Public satisfaction with Prabowo (in%)

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