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View all search resultsDe-binarization of world affairs: The third way for ASEAN?
The new administration will see China the same way: Not as a dangerous (trade) rival, but as a foe.
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ince my recent article in The Jakarta Post “ASEAN at crossroads” on Oct. 23, 2020 about the need to find the third way in the eve of the global strategic decoupling, a number of commentators were wondering if that article was an overstatement. During last week’s lecture given to Diponegoro University in Semarang on the very same topic, many faculty members were seeking for the further clarification.
Hence, to repeat; as the present world order weakens, the mega confrontations have appeared more likely: On its post-Soviet revival quest, Russia becomes increasingly assertive in Euro-Mediterranean theatre and beyond. Simultaneously, the Sino-American relations are increasingly adversarial, with escalating frictions over trade, advanced technology, human rights, and global strategic influence.
Strategic decoupling between the biggest manufacturer of American goods – China, and its largest consumer – the US, seems inevitable.
Of course, many would reject the above as an overstatement and the author’s alarmism. To this end, let us state some facts.
Extensive trading is not deterrent. Trade is an instrument of power not a virtue per se. (The case of the UK and Germany in the eve of World War I, and of Japan and the US in 1941, are the most known, in the series of such examples starting with the Peloponnese, Trojan and Punic wars through Napoleonic wars and Continental blockade all the way up to modern times, when nations were “sleepwalking” strait into a major mutually devastating and lasting armed conflict).
Absence of (regional) nuclear parity deterrent. (Asia hosts by far the largest number of nuclear powers – 2 legitimate, 3 declared, 1 undeclared and at least 2 states with the credible delivery systems and N-ready ‘turn-key’ technology. None of them is even by its quantities, qualities, configurations and delivery capabilities – which makes the First strike doctrine tempting.)
Diminishing international order due to a combination or either of the following:
