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The Indonesian perspective: Will Japan’s new security policy threaten stability in South East Asia?
Japan’s security transformations are not only aimed to confront North Korea and China, but have larger virtues that include the proactive pursuit of peace and security in the Asia Pacific and beyond. However, Japan’s new security policy could be of serious concern for East Asia’s war-peace stability. Nobody expects a second Cold War in East Asia between Japan, China and North Korea, but security dilemmas and the balance of power, have always existed historically from military power and self-defense force transformation.
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Japan’s new development might potentially boost enthusiasm for the idea of an Indo-Pacific security architecture that involves a stronger Japan to balance China’s power in the region. Indonesia is in the middle of a rivalry. (Shutterstock/-)
The dynamics of East Asian security and stability have prompted Japan to transform its national self-defense forces.
East Asia’s geopolitical dynamics have become a concern to Japan. The concerns come from economic ties with China, an increasingly assertive China and North Korea, the increasing engagement of the United States in the security realm and balancing trends by regional states in East Asia.
Japan’s controversial security bills have passed the Upper House of the Diet, ushering in a new era in Japanese security policy that allows the country to deploy its military overseas and play a much more prominent strategic role in peacekeeping and collective self-defense. This move represents a significant shift in post-war defense policy away from the limited use of force and pacifist sentiment expressed in the Constitution to a more expansive interpretation.
Publications from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute report that the bills include a number of important policy changes. The most significant is undoubtedly the use of collective self-defense, which allows Japan to deploy its military in support of the armed forces of the US and other countries in situations that have an “important influence on Japan’s peace and security”. Before, the use of force was only permitted in the event of a direct armed attack against Japan. The government now considers the following three conditions when reaching a decision: that the attack against Japan or another country threatens Japan’s survival, that there are no other appropriate means available, and that the corresponding use of force is limited to the minimum extent necessary.
Japan’s security transformations are not only aimed to confront North Korea and China, but have larger virtues that include the proactive pursuit of peace and security in the Asia Pacific and beyond.
However, Japan’s new security policy could be of serious concern for East Asia’s war-peace stability. Nobody expects a second Cold War in East Asia between Japan, China and North Korea, but security dilemmas and the balance of power, have always existed historically from military power and self-defense force transformation.
In South East Asia, there are two focus points for Japan. Those are the Malacca Straits and the South China Sea. The Malacca Straits is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas because of its high potential for conflict. Every year, billions of dollars worth of goods and services pass through the region formed by the Straits of Malacca and other associated shipping routes. By using the Malacca Straits, the Japanese petroleum industry saves millions of dollars annually.The number of transnational organized crime groups in the Malacca Straits is a big issue for major powers such as the USA, the United Kingdom, India, China, and certainly Japan. This threatens Indonesia—not only territorially, but also in the larger sense of stability in South East Asia. To beat this threat, Indonesia must secure is territory, its own straits. We can’t imagine what the Malacca Straits or the South China Sea would become if each of these major powers established a military base there.
Japan’s new development might potentially boost enthusiasm for the idea of an Indo-Pacific security architecture that involves a stronger Japan to balance China’s power in the region. Indonesia is in the middle of a rivalry.
ASEAN’s position on Japan’s security policy remains unclear. As the region’s main institution, ASEAN has a responsibility to formulate an effective mechanism to ease tensions and protect regional stability. The ASEAN Regional Forum is the only forum that can make China, Japan, South Korea and North Korea sit at the same table and talk. Indonesia and ASEAN are “referees”. However, ASEAN also has problems in the cohesion of its member nations, especially when dealing with the relations of a major power like China with Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Cohesiveness is ASEAN’s primary means of maintaining stability in the region. Without it, ASEAN will be easily divided by the big players, such as China, Japan, or the US.
Indonesia has a major role, as “ASEAN Leader”, to pursue an understanding with Laos—as ASEAN’s next summit host—to work together in the name of ASEAN to maintain South East Asia’s stability following Japan’s new defense policy and its changing relations to China. Indonesian diplomacy will be a success if it can ease tensions and maintain stability in the light of Japan’s military transformation and China’s hegemonic vision toward Asia. Indonesia could act as the caretaker of stability in South East Asia. Indonesia, in fact, holds the key to stability in South East Asia.
Given that the Japanese government needs to work hard to convince its own citizens and the regional community that its new defense policy will contribute to maintaining security and order, this is a good time to encourage dialogue and cooperation with its neighbors. Indonesia, through ASEAN, must take this opportunity. This will help ensure that Japan’s new defense policy produces the best possible future for the region. When Japan and the US are open to discussion and cooperation, China, I am very sure, will modify its strategy and avoid confrontation.
Good diplomacy has to be guaranteed by a strong military. Indonesia still has some problems and issues related to military transformation in East Asia. Indonesia also has some paradoxes in its own military defense systems. According to Evan Laksmana in his article “Paradox in the Defense Industry”, there are three paradoxical policies in Indonesia’s defense systems. First, there is a paradox between the primary consumer of defense industry products (in this case, the Indonesian Military) with state-owned enterprise (BUMN-Pertahanan) objectives and expectations. Second, there is a paradox between the BUMN empowerment strategy, which thrives on “techno-nationalism”, and the uprising of regional “techno-globalists”, and third, there is a paradox between military budget enhancement and the degradation of Indonesia’s defense-BUMN.
These three paradoxical conditions illustrate that Indonesia is not adequately prepared to face Japan’s new defense policy.
As the leader of ASEAN, Indonesia should intensify its relationships with Japan, China, and the US by strengthening economic cooperation and partnerships. ASEAN Free Trade mechanisms and other economic partnerships and integration models such as the TPP and the RCEP would stabilize Japanese, Chinese, and US influences in South East Asia, and could even regulate how Japan, China, and the US act toward each other.
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Azhari Setiawan is researcher and student at Postgraduate Program of International Relations Department, Universitas Indonesia. He is also a researcher at Center of ASEAN Community Studies, Universitas Riau and Founder of Forum for Academician of Int'l Relations, Universitas Riau.
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