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Five more years or a new beginning?
As Indonesia’s electorate heads to the polls, the question is whether President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo deserves five more years or should Prabowo Subianto be given a chance.
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Business matters: President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo stands among a number of businesspeople at Istora Senayan, Jakarta, on Thursday. Some 10,000 businesspeople have declared their support for Jokwi and running mate ma’ruf Amin in the upcoming presidential election against Prabowo Suianto-Sandiaga Uno.
(The Jakarta Post/Dhoni Setiawan )
I
ndonesia is just a few weeks away from the general election. The logistical challenge of organizing a vote involving over 190 million registered voters and 800,000 polling stations across the vast archipelago is daunting.
Also, for the first time both the presidential and legislative elections will be held on the same day. Almost 20,000 public posts at national, provincial and local levels will be contested on April 17.
However, virtually all eyes will be on the vote that determines who will occupy Merdeka Palace for the next five years. As Indonesia’s electorate heads to the polls, the question is whether President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo deserves five more years or should Prabowo Subianto be given a chance.
Most surveys leading up to the crucial vote have consistently shown the incumbent, Jokowi, ahead of his rival, Prabowo Subianto, in the presidential race — in many cases with double-digit margins. Jokowi’s electability has stood around the mid-50 percent range, while Prabowo’s electability trails behind in the mid-30 percent range, with the remainder being undecided voters.
For the casual observer, a Jokowi victory is the more likely outcome. However, the lessons of the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom, Donald Trump’s triumph in the United States’ presidential election as well as Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s defeat in the Jakarta gubernatorial election in recent years should make us cautious of taking anything for granted.
Indeed, much has been made of a recent survey by the country’s largest newspaper Kompas that found the race to be narrowing. Released on March 20, the survey indicated 49.2 percent of respondents favored Jokowi (down 3.4 percent from five months ago) while 37.4 percent favored Prabowo (up 4.3 percent).
This finding alone represents a remarkable turnaround from a year ago when the results of the presidential election seemed like a foregone conclusion. Indeed, at one point there were genuine concerns that Jokowi would be the sole candidate with Prabowo apparently wavering and Indonesia facing the very real prospect of an uncontested election. Now the situation has changed to one where the opposition is at least confident enough to fancy their chances in taking on the incumbent, buoyed by indications that the race is narrowing.
