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Tragedy of Australian fires and climate policies
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The afternoon sky glows orange from bushfires in the area around the town of Nowra in the Australian state of New South Wales on December 31, 2019. Thousands of holidaymakers and locals were forced to flee to beaches in fire-ravaged southeast Australia on December 31, as blazes ripped through popular tourist areas leaving no escape by land. (AFP/Saeed Khan)
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cenes of devastation from Australia’s fires have been heartbreaking. How do we stop this suffering? For many campaigners and politicians, the answer is clear-cut: drastic climate policies. When we examine the evidence, this simple answer falls short.
Australia is the world’s most fire-prone continent. In 1900, 11 percent of its surface burned annually. These days, some 5 percent of the country burns every year.
By the end of the century, if we do not stop climate change, higher temperatures and an increase in aridity will likely mean a 0.7 percentage point increase in burned area, an increase from 5.3 percent of Australia to 6 percent.
This increase is not trivial, and it is an argument for effective climate change action. By far the most impactful, practical policy is a dramatic increase in investment in low- and zero-carbon energy innovation.
That’s because, for decades to come, solar and wind energy will be neither cheap enough nor effective enough to replace fossil fuels. Today, they make up just 1.1 percent of global energy use and the International Energy Agency estimates that even after we spend US$3 trillion more on subsidies, they will not even reach 5 percent by 2040.
Innovation is needed to bring down the price of green energy. We need to find breakthroughs for batteries, nuclear, carbon capture, and a plethora of other promising technologies. Innovation can solve our climate challenge.
Unfortunately, many reports on Australia’s fires have exploited the carnage to push a specific agenda, resting on three ideas: that wildfire is worse than ever, that this is caused by global warming, and that the only solution is for political leaders to make even-bigger carbon cut promises.
