Compared with Malaysia, ASEAN neighbors Singapore and Indonesia enjoy a more definite succession mechanism. Indonesia will have a new leader on Oct. 20, 2024 when President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo ends his second five-year term. As far as the opinion surveys are concerned, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan stand a good chance to succeed Jokowi.

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has often stated he will leave office after the 2025 elections, having been in power since 2004. It is almost certain that his successor will be Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, unless the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) concedes a defeat in the forthcoming polls.

For Indonesia, ASEAN will always be the cornerstone of its foreign policy, but relations with Malaysia and Singapore will always be special due to, among other reasons, the size of their economic and trade relations. Therefore, Jakarta closely follows the political stability and economic growth of the two neighbors, especially the ever-changing political landscape in Malaysia.

Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia are three littoral states of the Malacca Strait, which according to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) are mandated to maintain peace and security in one of the world’s busiest commercial lanes, which connects the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Close cooperation among the three countries is imperative to ensure safe passage of all vessels passing the international waters.

Since 2018, Jokowi has received five Malaysian prime ministers. Meanwhile, PM Lee has hosted six Malaysian leaders, including Abdullah Badawi, who ruled Malaysia from 2003 to 2009.

Najib ruled Malaysia for nine years, from April 3, 2009, until May 9, 2018, when the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) suffered an unprecedented shock defeat since the country’s independence in 1963.  

In the May 9, 2018, election, the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 113 seats in the 222-seat parliament. It was enough to form a majority and control the parliament.

Former prime minister-turned opposition leader Mahathir Mohamad was elected as PM for the second time. He governed the country for less than two years; his government collapsed in February 2020 due to an internal feud. Mahathir had promised to hand over the PM seat to Anwar, but broke it until the PH coalition crumbled.

Muhyiddin replaced Mahathir as PM, but his government lasted only one year and 169 days, from March 1, 2020, until Aug. 16, 2021. Muhyiddin is very likely to emulate Najib in falling from grace. Muhyiddin is free on bail, but knowing his sour relations with PM Anwar, he will unlikely escape justice.

Ismail Sabri Yakoob replaced Muhyiddin on Aug. 21, 2021, but he could only survive for one year and 96 days, until Nov. 24, 2022. During his brief term, he jolted Indonesians for proposing the Malay language as the official language of ASEAN.

Anwar’s PH coalition won the 2022 election, but fell short of parliamentary seats to form a government, prompting it to join forces with BN. The compromise earned BN a deputy prime ministerial post, which went to UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. Anwar was sworn in as the 10^th PM of Malaysia on Nov. 24, 2022, ending 25 years of wait.

Anwar had been tipped as the country’s fifth PM in place of his mentor Mahathir. But Anwar was ousted and even imprisoned for corruption and sodomy by Mahathir.

For outsiders, it is difficult to believe that Anwar will survive until his term ends in 2027. In his campaign promise, he pledged to eradicate corruption as one of his top priorities along with higher economic growth, and more equality for all. Malay is the majority population of plural Malaysia and its constitution grants the dominant ethnic privileges. Minority ethnic Chinese and Indian, however, play a leading role in the economic sector.

Despite the political instability, Malaysia retains its position as the second least corrupt nation in ASEAN after Singapore. According to the 2022 global Corruption Perception Index, which was issued by Transparency International in February of this year, Singapore ranked 5^th in the world after Denmark, Finland, New Zealand and Norway.

In ASEAN, Malaysia ranked 61^st, Vietnam 77^th, Thailand 101^st, Indonesia 110^th, the Philippines 116^th, Laos 126^th, Cambodia 150^th and Myanmar 157^th. Brunei cannot be found on the list.

According to The Star, the Malaysian economy is predicted to start moderating due to the effects of global economic instability in the months ahead. Its economy is tipped to grow moderately between 4 percent and 5 percent this year, still higher than the global growth of 2.7 percent according to the International Monetary Fund. Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research forecasted Malaysia's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow to 4 percent, from 8.7 percent in 2022.

Citing the World Bank, the malaymail said in its February edition the main factor that may drive Malaysia’s economic growth this year is domestic private spending. The Bank also expects a continued flow of capital investments into both the private and public sectors, with the manufacturing and services sectors at the forefront of the public sector, while the government is expected to be mainly focused on upgrading public infrastructure and amenities.

Malaysia’s economy will keep on growing despite any political turmoil. But how can Malaysia grow steadily if the country has had five prime ministers in the last six years and is still counting?

As good neighbors, we can only hope PM Anwar will survive until the next election in 2027, although it will be very difficult.

Malaysians have the right to determine their own future. They surely will not accept instability to prolong. Divisive Malaysia perhaps needs a major change to its voters’ behavior to ensure long lasting political stability, which Singapore and Indonesia have enjoyed so far.

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The writer is senior editor at The Jakarta Post.