Only the General Elections Commission (KPU) has the authority to announce the election results through the real count, but quick counts can precisely predict the outcome of an election. The quick counts on Feb. 14 saw the Prabowo-Gibran pair lead their competitors, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, by a huge margin.

As the margin of error in these surveys is less than 2 percent and the entered data were already around 90 percent, it is most likely the manual count by the KPU will confirm the quick count results. The pair’s contenders may refuse to accept the quick counts and call for the public to wait for the official results, but it is safe to say they would need to collect as much evidence of fraud and vote rigging practices as possible to challenge or even deny Prabowo-Gibran’s victory when the KPU announces the election results next month.

Due to the unassailable lead, Prabowo and Gibran gathered their team and supporters at the Istora Senayan sports hall in Jakarta to declare their win and readiness to lead the nation, regardless of choice of presidential ticket. In response to the quick count results, Anies said he respected the process of the manual vote counting by the KPU. He said the election results were still a long way off, and he would remain in the opposition if the KPU declared Prabowo the elected president. In a similar vein, Ganjar said he would not take the quick count results into account and would wait for the official vote count to conclude.

The quick count results should not come as a surprise as several pollsters had predicted in their final pre-election surveys that Prabowo and Gibran would seal a victory in only one round.

Earlier this month, Lembaga Survei Indonesia and Indikator Politik Indonesia had projected that Prabowo-Gibran would win the election with more than 50 percent of the vote, followed by Anies-Muhaimin and Gibran-Mahfud MD respectively in the second and third positions. Prabowo-Gibran grew stronger in several polls having consistently taken pole position since their declaration as a team in November 2023, while Anies overtook Ganjar, whose electability nosedived in the few months before voting.

One of the significant factors behind Prabowo’s success is support from President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who is also Gibran’s father. Even though Jokowi never explicitly expressed his preference of Prabowo, Jokowi’s footprints were sensed during his defense minister’s campaign. Jokowi beat Prabowo twice in the 2014 and 2019 two-horse races, but they formed an alliance in a move dubbed a national reconciliation after the 2019 election.

Viewpoint

Every Thursday

Whether you're looking to broaden your horizons or stay informed on the latest developments, "Viewpoint" is the perfect source for anyone seeking to engage with the issues that matter most.

View More Newsletter

By registering, you agree with The Jakarta Post's Privacy Policy

Sign Up

Thank You

for signing up our newsletter!

Please check your email for your newsletter subscription.

View More Newsletter

What’s more

While the center field is already overcrowded, the PDI-P in the past has enjoyed almost exclusively the field to the left of the center. But the PDI-P may lose some votes to the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which is also positioning itself in the left of the center. In October, the PSI named Jokowi's youngest son, 28-year Kaesang Pangarep, as chair only two days after he joined. Jokowi has since appeared in PSI campaign videos to help it make the 4 percent threshold to win representation in the House.

Seven parties are using Islam to win votes, although the National Awakening Party (PKB), unlike the other six, is not campaigning for an Islamic state or sharia (Islamic law). Of the other six, surveys say only the Justice Welfare Party (PKS) will make it to the House.

The United Development Party (PPP), the oldest Islamist party, could be on its way out for the first time. The Islamist parties are part of the Indonesian political landscape as they represent the aspirations of people craving for Islam to play a bigger role in state affairs, but their size is never large enough to raise the alarm, at least judging from the election results. Besides, these parties are at each other's throats competing for the same small pool of voters.

Sometimes, the small votes they win are enough to get them not only seats in the House but also to join the government, to influence policies. The PKS was part of both governments under Yudhoyono, and the PPP has been part of the Jokowi government.

The political parties have only this one shot at the elections, unlike the presidential race, which may go to a runoff in the case where no candidate wins an absolute majority.

The incoming president in October will likely want to bolster his strength in the House and will invite other parties, even those that oppose him in the presidential race, to join the government. The more seats the parties have in the House, the stronger their bargaining power will be in securing strategic Cabinet posts.

President Jokowi is heading a coalition government comprising seven of the nine parties represented in the House, which jointly control more than 80 percent of the seats. In return for parceling out Cabinet seats to the parties, the President relied on them to help secure his legislative agenda.

The PDI-P may not win the presidency this time around, but the party will want to make sure that it continues to win the most votes in the legislative elections to be able to have some say in the next government.

What’s More

Some quarters however have shown dissatisfaction with the surveys and the quick count results. Indikator Politik was accused of having connections with Prabowo-Gibran, thus its survey results favored the pair. Nevertheless, the pollster denied the allegation and emphasized its work followed scientific and objective methods.

Meanwhile, Indonesian Party of Struggle (PDI-P) secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto insisted that the elections had been conducted in an unfair manner in the first place, starting with the Constitutional Court's decision to allow Gibran to join the race. Therefore, he asked the Ganjar-Mahfud campaign team to deploy an investigative team to restore justice in the electoral process.

Ganjar-Mahfud's allies also asserted that quick counts should not misguide the public with inaccurate information as there were no guiding norms set by the authorities. They also stated that quick counts were not necessarily impartial.

The way Prabowo-Gibran won the race is reminiscent of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and his running mate Boediono in 2009, who secured a landslide win over their contenders in a three-way race. The incumbent SBY and Boediono won 60 percent of the vote to outplay Megawati Soekarnoputri-Prabowo and Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto.

What we’ve heard

Some sources within Prabowo’s camp said a one-round victory had been predicted several days before the election through a survey commissioned by President Jokowi.

"The survey results indicated a victory for Prabowo and Gibran at 58 percent," said a politician. The source mentioned that Senayan Sports Hall, where Prabowo gathered his supporters after the quick count, had been booked two days in advance.

Anies Baswedan’s camp also received similar quick count results. Sources within Anies' circle stated that the atmosphere within the campaign team had been gloomy since the start of the vote counting, especially in the late afternoon when the quick count reached over 50 percent. "The atmosphere within the team was very dull," the source said.

Nevertheless, a close associate of Anies mentioned that the pair did not want to hastily accept the election results in order not to disappoint their supporters. "We are also in communication with supporting parties," said Anies' colleague.

The campaign teams of Anies and Ganjar said that Prabowo's victory was marred by irregularities. Several high-ranking members of both campaign teams identified various efforts leading up to the voting, such as the distribution of basic necessities and early voting.

This source mentioned that Anies and Ganjar had explored the possibility of collaboration if the presidential election went into two rounds. The plan was for a meeting between PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri and NasDem Party chairman Surya Paloh, to be facilitated by former vice president Jusuf Kalla.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

Politics

1. Ethics violations haunt Gibran’s election as VP
2. House supports Village Law revision ahead of elections
3. PDI-P leads legislative race with Golkar, Gerindra close behind

Business and Economy

1. Retail stocks empty as Jokowi distributes rice to 22m families
2. Updated rooftop solar panels rulings eliminates net metering
3. KCI to replace Japanese train imports with Chinese trains

Popular

PDI-P will likely be part of opposition: Ganjar

Indonesia one step from Olympics after beating South Korea

Bahlil leads task force to boost sugar, bioethanol production in Papua