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Analysis: Jokowi to maintain influence after succession
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President Joko “Jokowi“ Widodo talks to journalists from The Jakarta Post during an interview at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta on Nov. 2. (JP/Abdur Rahim)
P
resident Joko ''Jokowi'' Widodo is entering the final months of his second and final term, with presumptive winner Prabowo Subianto set to be inaugurated in October this year. Although he is constitutionally required to leave office after spending the last 10 years at the helm, Jokowi’s influence in the country’s political landscape looks to remain intact for the foreseeable future.
First and foremost, Jokowi was widely viewed as the kingmaker who helped Prabowo dominate the presidential election on Feb. 14, even at the expense of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of which Jokowi is a member and which helped boost him to the presidency in 2014 and get reelected in 2019. The triumph tasted sweeter as Prabowo, with Jokowi's full backing, beat the PDI-P's presidential hopeful Ganjar Pranowo in the party’s traditional voter bases of Central Java, Bali and East Nusa Tenggara.
Although Jokowi will be stepping down from office, he will remain a significant player in shaping the country’s political dynamics through the next generation of his family. His eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka is almost certain to ascend to the vice presidency under Prabowo, and his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep leads the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI). Meanwhile, his son-in-law Muhammad Bobby Afif Nasution is the current mayor of North Sumatra’s capital Medan.
Rumors suggest that Kaesang might run for either Jakarta governor or Depok mayor in the regional head elections in November, while Bobby already has the support of the Golkar Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN) for his bid for North Sumatra governor.
Jokowi, who has been closely connected with Golkar, has an opportunity to head up the coalition that will be formed to support Prabowo's administration. But the outgoing president’s relationship with the PDI-P and its chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri became tenuous when he clearly indicated his electoral leaning toward Prabowo instead of Ganjar. The broken ties between Jokowi and his own party became difficult to mend, especially after Gibran was chosen as Prabowo's running mate.
Former vice president Jusuf Kalla, has expressed his objection to Jokowi’s immediate induction to the leadership of Golkar, which he once chaired. Citing the party’s standing order, Kalla said a politician must be a member for at least five years before they could become a Golkar executive.
Jokowi might use Golkar as his new political vehicle by supporting potential figures to succeed senior economic affairs minister Airlangga Hartarto as party chair. Two such figures are Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan and Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia who, like Airlangga, are members of Jokowi's cabinet.
Additionally, the President has appointed several individuals who are loyal to his interests to serve in key positions. They include Indonesian Military (TNI) commander Gen. Agus Subiyanto, National Police chief Gen. Listyo Sigit Prabowo and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Maruli Simanjuntak, all of who will retain their posts for a few more years after the regime change in October.In the 2009 presidential race, he ran as running mate to Megawati Soekarnputri and lost. He ran in 2014 and 2019 as presidential candidate and lost both times to Jokowi. He ran again in February, this time with Jokowi’s full support and help, and it looks like he has won.
What’s More
Jokowi's strong political clout is evident in his public approval rating of 80 percent in January 2024. It is therefore unsurprising that several popular PDI-P figures, such as Budiman Sudjatmiko and Maruarar “Ara” Sirait, have decided to align themselves with Jokowi.
Although Jokowi is currently a PDI-P member, the party’s elite and matriarch Megawati are unlikely to cede its top leadership post to Jokowi, regardless of his popularity. Furthermore, Jokowi’s future in the party remains uncertain, as the PDI-P has positioned itself firmly in opposition to his administration.
In addition, the PDI-P expelled Bobby after he declared his support for the Prabowo-Gibran campaign. Golkar is also likely to undergo a leadership change soon, as Airlangga’s tenure ends this year. Bambang Soesatyo, Speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), is a strong candidate to lead Indonesia’s oldest political party. While Airlangga responded positively when asked whether Jokowi might join Golkar, the President has neither confirmed nor denied the rumors. Experts say Golkar is the best option for Jokowi, and that both he and the party will benefit from such a union, given Jokowi’s broad popular support and Golkar’s status as a major party.
What we’ve heard
Some politicians say Jokowi is looking to play an active role in the transition of power. At a closed-door meeting, Jokowi asked that draft work plans and budgets consider the likely outcome of the presidential election.
A source in the Golkar Party said President Jokowi planned to use the party as a bargaining chip to control the incoming government of presumptive winner Prabowo. This source also said Golkar stood a great chance of securing the post of House of Representatives Speaker if it gained more seats than the PDI-P.
According to the latest tally from the General Elections Commission (KPU), Golkar has won in 15 provinces so far, while the PDI-P has won in only 10 provinces.
The same source said the President was likely to support Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia for the Golkar chairmanship, in view of a general desire to hold a party congress to elect a new chairman before Jokowi's term ends in October. Meanwhile, its current chair Airlangga was also maneuvering to retain his position, including by seeking the support of presumptive president Prabowo. "Airlangga has now secured support from all of the party’s provincial leaders," the source said.
Apart from his reported plan to join Golkar, Jokowi is also said to have proposed the names of several confidants to Prabowo for ministerial appointments in law, economic affairs and education and culture. But another source said Prabowo wanted people loyal to him to occupy these posts. "There will be a fight between Jokowi's people and the Prabowo group for the remaining term of the [current] government," they said.
The same source also pointed to a new challenge that recently emerged for Jokowi: to foil a potential move by the House to open an inquiry into allegations of election fraud, which has the support of several parties, including the NasDem Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). The source said Jokowi would attempt to galvanize support from the House factions allied with Prabowo to oppose the move. "For now, Jokowi is benefiting from the internal situation at the PDI-P, which is still undecided about the inquiry," they said.
Disclaimer
This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:
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