Without Southeast Asia’s or ASEAN’s participation, it will be very difficult to establish a regional security organization that is open and neutral to everybody in the region.
he United States’ new concept to manage the region from the Western Pacific Coast of the US to the Indian Ocean, India and the borders of Pakistan and Afghanistan was put up in the 2017-2018 National Security System named Indo-Pacific and launched almost simultaneously with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a cooperation of democratic countries in the Indo-Pacific region — the US, Japan, India and Australia —at the Senior Officials Meeting of the four countries in Manila during the East Asia Summit (EAS).
With this background, many thought Quad was central. It was first proposed by Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007-2008, but never got off the ground because Australia and India had cold feet in encircling China. It was considered too hasty to embark on military cooperation with joint military exercises.
Now, with a much bigger China that cannot be contained, the idea seems to be outmoded. Indonesia and ASEAN will be negatively affected by the earlier proposal, creating a potential confrontation between China and Quad in the region.
It also meant to take away ASEAN’s central role in organizing strategic entities by leaving the established ASEAN-led regional institutions — such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Plus and the East Asia Summit (EAS) – in limbo.
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