Ultimately, the NLD not only failed to hold the Myanmar military – their political opponent, which ultimately ousted them – accountable for crimes against humanity directed at the Rohingya and other minorities, but cast their lot alongside them in the name of national unity. Nothing good could have come of this, and the outcome was all but guaranteed.

It’s particularly tragic how ethnic minorities were caught in the NLD and military’s crossfire, and horrific how their disenfranchisement was manipulated to the military’s gain. The NLD played right into their hands, allowing the selective cancellation of voting in some areas due to security concerns, especially in war-torn Rakhine state.

These robbed scores of eligible voters of their ballots, boosting the NLD’s prospects of victory. The military has not provided credible evidence backing its claims of voter fraud, but the NLD should have done more to ensure that all Myanmar’s citizens – including those supporting opposition ethnic minority parties – could participate in the November 2020 election.

COVID-19 infections crept up in Myanmar during peak campaign season in August and September. Questions rose about the military’s role and campaign protocols favoring the NLD. Limits on international election observers increased citizens’ suspicion and distrust about the election. When campaign protocols from the Union Election Commission were announced just one day prior to the official commencement of campaigning, observers noted that this rollout’s timing benefits the NLD, to the detriment of ethnic minority parties.

With its mass of volunteers, prominent pre-existing social media presence, and door-to-door canvassing capacity, the NLD’s ultimate electoral victory was increasingly likely. Ultimately, it led to their undoing as the military used unfounded claims of voter fraud to delegitimize the NLD’s overwhelming victory.

Myanmar isn’t the only country in Southeast Asia where governments are chipping away at already fragile democratic institutions. The COVID-19 pandemic allowed governments to alter election schedules, reschedule parliamentary sittings and encumber political opponents. Some of these moves had legitimate public health purposes, but others were purely orchestrated for political gain. Governments in the region have manipulated the timing and execution of elections to reap political benefits.

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