TheJakartaPost
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Jakarta ceases to be Indonesia’s political bellwether
Fundamentally, the capital city should reflect the country’s political life, where differences and divisions in preferences can be seen and pulses from its movements can be felt nationwide.
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Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto during the 212 rally on Jl. MH Thamrin on Sunday. (Courtesy of Prabowo-Sandiaga Media Team/-)
T
he new capital, Nusantara, is set to be inaugurated in less than three years. Located in Kalimantan’s eastern seaboard, it wishes to be the central hub of the political and governing ecosystem, sitting equidistant from all ends of the nation. A law has been passed to affirm the move.
While public debates over Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s biggest legacy project continue fiercely, the issue focuses on economic, environmental, technocratic elements, and accusation over potential largesse for the powerful. The government reasons that Nusantara represents a shift into Indonesia’s future of innovativeness and inclusiveness, as well as adaptation of environmental awareness.
For the opponents, separating Jakarta from its identity as the nation’s capital would unravel the delicate balance in the political, economic, social and cultural aspects of the nation.
These debates, however, miss one huge factor regarding Jakarta that is crucial for the fundamental political feature for the nation’s locus. Fundamentally, the capital city should reflect the country’s political life, where differences and divisions in preferences can be seen and pulses from its movements can be felt nationwide. The capital should be the nation’s bellwether.
On a diverging path for the past nine years, Jakarta has increasingly ceased to be Indonesia’s political bellwether. This is most telling from examining the gubernatorial and presidential elections from 2012 to 2019, and opinion polls in recent times.
When Jokowi won the gubernatorial race in 2012, it was at a proportion that mimicked the country’s political divide – he as a nationalist-pluralist figure vis-à-vis a conservative-primordial person – at 53-47 percent. However, in that contest, Jokowi managed to secure wins in all the five municipalities in the city. From the north where he received the biggest margin, to the west and east where the margins were more attuned to the overall outcome. Then toward the south and finally to the center where it was the most competitive: Only 1.4 percent or 7,000 votes separating Jokowi and Fauzi Bowo.
What was more important was the absence of clear territorial lines separating the nationalists and the conservatives. What could be seen was several strongholds of either camp at subdistrict level, although they were still scattered in those five municipalities.
