TheJakartaPost
Please Update your browser
Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.
Analysis: Supporters keep hope alive for Jokowi to stay beyond 2024
Change Size
President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo greets his supporters after speaking to the press at the Djakarta Theater in Central Jakarta on April 17th 2019. Early counts showed the incumbent had won his reelection bid. (JP/Seto Wardhana)
D
ie-hard supporters of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo held a congress in Bandung on Aug. 28 to keep their hopes alive for him to continue to serve the nation beyond 2024 when his current term in office ends, in defiance of the constitutional two-term limit.
Although the President has repeatedly said he would abide by the constitution and not run for another term, his presence and speech at the meeting in Bandung is sending a different kind of message to the public: He has not completely ruled out the possibility and may even be interested. The supporters who formed an organization called “ProJo” claim widespread public support for him to remain. Citing their own survey, Jokowi came top when his name was included. Most surveys exclude Jokowi in questionnaires about the most popular figures for 2024.
In his speech, Jokowi defended the people’s right to express their aspiration, but was vague when it came to his own plan. “This is a people’s forum, right? They have the right to voice themselves, right? Don’t let them stop you from talking about a third term. It may just be an idea, but people have the right to express their opinion. “The Constitution forbids it. That is clear. So let me repeat once again, I will abide by the constitution and the wishes of the people.” That last part of the speech raises all kinds of speculations.
Jokowi’s presence in Bandung to meet and greet with supporters are encouraging them to continue with their campaign. After this successful first “People’s Congress”, the group moves to Makassar this month to drum up more public support and to be followed by other cities. The organizers hope to see the number double in Makassar to prove their point that there is a strong aspiration among the people for Jokowi to remain president.
Exactly what their game plan is to achieve this is not clear. The route through amending the term limit is closed after the People’s Consultative Assembly decided early this year that it was backing out of an earlier plan to begin deliberations on amending the constitution. Another scenario cited by analysts is that the president could declare a state of emergency and cancel the February 2024 general elections by invoking some crisis, for example another bout of COVID-19 pandemic or something similar. This could give him time, maybe two years or more, before he would have to organize the general elections.
Jokowi’s right hand man Luhut Binsar Panjaitan, who is the coordinating minister for maritime affairs and investment, claimed in April that research by his office on social media found massive grassroot support for the president to stay in power. Luhut said the President should be given the chance to complete some of the work that he had initiated, including the plan to move the capital to East Kalimantan. Luhut dropped the campaign after taking so much heat.
ProJo made its name and reputation when it organized a massive rally at the Senayan Sports Stadium in Jakarta in August 2014, just a week before the presidential elections. That gathering was said to have tipped the balance in Jokowi’s favor to narrowly beat rival Prabowo Subianto. Five years later, ProJo played a major role in ensuring victory for his second term, again at Prabowo’s expense.
What’s more
The backbone of ProJo comes mostly from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) dissatisfaction with the leadership of chair Megawati Soekarnoputri. They gave Jokowi the leverage he needed in negotiating with the political parties in his coalition government, which includes PDIP, of which he is a member.
Although registered as a mass organization with the Law and Human Rights Ministry, ProJo never converted into a political party. With Jokowi now constitutionally ruled out for 2024, ProJo is now struggling to maintain its raison d’etre despite its power and influence.
While continuing to campaign for him, supporters are looking for cues from the President about who he wants as his successor in 2024 and they will campaign for that candidate. Jokowi has not made known to the public his wishes, but the Bandung congress is indicative of who the President thinks is the candidate that will continue rather than change his legacy.
In the impromptu survey of the more than 5,000 participants in Bandung, the second most popular public figure after Jokowi was Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno. Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo came third, followed by Defense Minister Prabowo (the two-time loser to Jokowi) and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.
What we’ve heard
Several volunteer groups of President Jokowi have been gathering for discussion forums in a number of cities to look for potential presidential candidates they will support in the 2024 election.
Three sources who know about the maneuvering of the volunteer groups said that Jokowi has routinely gathered his supporters to discuss their direction in the 2024 election. One of the meetings took place at the Bogor Palace, about three months ago. During the meeting, the volunteers asked Jokowi to run again. “But Jokowi asked them to obey the Constitution,” said the source.
According to several politicians, Jokowi relies much on the volunteer groups as they are the only source of political power he has ahead of the 2024 elections. These politicians say that the volunteers have been used as ‘bargaining power’ against political parties, especially the PDIP. Jokowi’s relationship with PDIP has not been harmonious, especially regarding the agenda for extending the presidential term which PDIP rejected.
Jokowi relies on a number of close people to care for the volunteer groups. Sidarto Danusubroto, a former aide to president Sukarno and former member of the Presidential Advisory Council, was asked to coach them. Eko Sulistyo, now a Commissioner of PT PLN and a member of Jokowi’s campaign team since his time as the mayor of Solo, regularly gathers volunteers and attends the declaration of loyalty to Jokowi.
Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan also takes care of the volunteer groups. He founded the Bravo 5 team, a volunteer organization made up of retired military officers.
Disclaimer
This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access our latest edition to read the articles listed below:
Politics
- Interim regional head appointment: What’s next for for Jakarta and Anies?
- Illicit arms trade underpins cycle of violence in Papua
- Time to set up external supervision for police
Business and Economy
- Fuel price hike met by demos, but not politically endangering -- yet
- Govt to develop sorghum amid global wheat scarcity
- Misunderstood, finance minister to reform civil-servant-pension system
- Stagflation risk looms in Indonesia as fuels price hikes
