Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is shaping up as the candidate to beat in the presidential race on Feb. 14, 2024, and is no longer the dark horse of earlier surveys.

With the field narrowing down to three frontrunners, electability surveys put him either in the lead or in second place behind Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. Prabowo’s rise comes mostly at the expense of former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who is now struggling in third place in almost all surveys.

If voters seem to be switching their allegiances, so are the political parties that have the power to nominate candidates. The Golkar Party, currently the second-largest party and which has no strong candidate of its own, is contemplating backing Prabowo’s nomination. Other smaller parties are doing their own calculations about which candidate to support, but Prabowo is increasingly becoming an attractive proposition, going by the latest surveys.

Prabowo virtually sealed his nomination on Monday, when the Nation Awakening Party (PKB) announced its support for the defense minister. The Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR), formed between PKB and Prabowo’s own Gerindra Party, has enough seats in the national legislature to nominate him. This means that whether other parties want to join the KKIR is almost immaterial, and they will be left with deciding between candidates with greater chances at winning or losing

Prabowo also seems to have the tacit support of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. While the President is not the head of any political party, he commands the support of millions of loyal and nonpartisan voters who helped him win the elections in 2014 and 2019, and who will vote for the candidate he endorses. Prabowo said last week that he would not resign as defense minister, even when beginning his presidential campaign; a statement that would not have been possible without clear signals from Jokowi.

Although the President has demonstrated public support for Ganjar, a fellow member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), palace insiders say he is leaning toward Prabowo as the candidate most likely to continue or preserve his presidential legacy after his second and final term ends in 2024.

Surveys predict a two-round presidential election because no candidate is expected to win a clear majority in February, and that Prabowo is likely to clinch one of the slots in the runoff voting. This raises the prospect of Prabowo squaring up against Ganjar in the second round scheduled for July 2024.

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