Prabowo is well aware that President Xi will view Indonesia with China's global interests in mind. But Prabowo can project himself as the de facto leader of ASEAN in order to demand certain concessions from his counterpart.

President Prabowo has chosen China as the destination of his first official visit after he was officially sworn in as Indonesia’s eighth president on Oct. 20. The decision shows his intention to continue his predecessor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s personal rapport with Xi as part of his foreign policy priority.

As the nature of the upcoming visit is official, in addition to his summit and a state banquet with President Xi, Prabowo will also pay courtesy calls to Premier Li Qiang and National People’s Congress (NPC) leadership. He will also lay a wreath at the People’s Heroes Monument in Tiananmen Square, Beijing.

The two leaders can also meet when they attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, and the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil later this month.

Beyond doubt, Indonesia’s economy is dependent on China. China has been Indonesia’s largest trading partner for 10 consecutive years. According to official statistics, China-Indonesia trade accounted for 25.24 percent of Indonesia’s total trade in 2022.

China has also been Indonesia’s largest source of imports for 13 consecutive years, number one export destination for seven consecutive years and second-largest investor after Singapore. China’s direct investment in Indonesia is worth US$4.55 billion, with a cumulative stock of $24.72 billion by the end of 2022.

Indonesia’s exports to China are mostly resource-based commodities, such as nickel-iron, nickel sulfide, thermal coal and liquefied petroleum gas, which accounted for over 60 percent of exports in 2022.

While continuation of the economic cooperation should top Prabowo’s agenda in Beijing, he can raise his concern about the latest situation in the North Natuna waters. 

Just one day after Prabowo’s inauguration, the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) drove away a Chinese Coast Guard vessel after it entered Indonesia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the North Natuna Sea. A few days later, the Chinese vessel attempted to intrude into the waters again.

Many have questioned the motive behind the Chinese Coast Guard’s maneuvers, which disrupted the seismic survey activities of state-owned PT Pertamina East Natuna.

The fact that the incident occurred three times within just a week has sparked speculation that the moves were deliberate rather than coincidental, perhaps to test Prabowo’s reaction. We praise Bakamla’s measured but firm response to the attempts of foreign forces to breach Indonesia’s sovereign right to the Natuna waters.

Such disruptions have reportedly happened in the last several years, although have been minor compared with the skirmishes between the Chinese Coast Guard and their Philippine counterparts, as well as fisherman. But if left unaddressed, such incidents will only pave the way for an open confrontation in the future, at the expense of the robust bilateral relations between Indonesia and China.

Indonesia is not a claimant to the South China Sea, but China includes the North Natuna waters in its nine-dash line map, arguing that the sea has been its fishing ground for thousands of years. Indonesia’s sovereign right to North Natuna waters is fully recognized by the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

In 2020, Indonesia deployed fighter jets and warships to patrol the Natuna Islands in a spat with Beijing after Chinese vessels entered the area.

President Prabowo should know very well how to convince President Xi to reach a mutual understanding on the issue of North Natuna. We believe the two leaders will be able to find a solution to the sensitive matter for the sake of a sustainable and mutually beneficial bilateral relationship.