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Postelection analysis: Indonesia has spoken
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Give peace a chance: President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo (center), who is running for a second term, and his running mate Ma’ruf Amin (second left), along with presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto (second right) and his running mate Sandiaga Uno (right), release pigeons during a peace declaration for the 2019 election campaign at the National Monument in Jakarta. (The Jakarta Post/Wendra Ajistyatama)
O
n April 17, a record 80 percent of the Indonesian electorate cast their votes at polling stations. However, to borrow the famous words of former United States president Bill Clinton: “The people have spoken, but it will take a while to determine exactly what they said.”
Certainly, the official results will not be known until the General Elections Commission (KPU) completes its month-long real count, which involves counting the votes manually at the subdistrict, regency/municipal, provincial and finally, the national, levels.
Fortunately, a number of pollsters have released quick count results for those impatient about waiting for the official announcement. Based on a sample of votes taken from a selection of polling stations across the country, these quick counts indicate the likely results of the official tally and have proven remarkably accurate in previous elections.
Interestingly, the pollsters have all reached very similar conclusions, with Joko “Jokowi” Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin securing 54-56 percent of the vote and Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno trailing at 44-46 percent.
Given that the different pollsters have all ended with similar quick count figures, we have a strong sense of certainty about the official result: a second term for the incumbent.
But his opponent has not given up the fight. As in the 2014 presidential election, Prabowo has refused to accept the quick count results and instead claimed victory. Shortly after voting closed, the former Army Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad) commander declared that his own “internal data” was based on supposedly actual results from 300,000 polling stations that indicated he had won with 62 percent of the vote. The claim appears somewhat implausible for two reasons.
First, having trailed in pre-election surveys with his electability ranging somewhere in the mid-30 percent, this would mean an unlikely swing of 30 percent in favor of Prabowo in the final days leading up to the election.
