United States President Donald Trump has reignited global trade tensions by imposing reciprocal import tariffs on 180 trading partners, with rates starting at 10 percent and rising significantly for 60 countries, including Indonesia, which now faces a 32 percent tariff, although now paused for three months. While Indonesia benefited modestly from the first US-China trade war in 2018, the dynamics of this second wave of trade retaliation demand a recalibrated strategy to unlock potential economic gains.

Following the “liberation day” tariffs imposed by United States President Donald Trump, countries are scouring for strategies and partnerships to mitigate the economic blow dealt by Washington. A developing country like Indonesia stands at a crossroads of having to prioritize the national interest while still being nice to Uncle Sam.

In response to the sharp decline in tax revenues in early 2025, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has assembled a special ministerial task force to bolster state revenue by targeting key taxpayers. However, market concerns persist over Indonesia's fiscal discipline, mounting debt obligations and the central bank’s increasing role in absorbing government bonds.

Although no longer in office, former president Joko ‘’Jokowi’’ Widodo appears and intends to play a significant role in national politics, as evident in the frequent encounters between him and his successor, President Prabowo Subianto, and the presence of over a dozen of his “men” in the current cabinet. In the latest gambit to remain relevant in the political theater today and beyond, Jokowi has proposed that the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which is led by his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep, shift toward a “super open” party in its upcoming congress in May.

Indonesia’s newly established sovereign wealth fund, Daya Anagata Nusantara (Danantara), has had a rocky start in its mission to support national economic growth. Its launch in February triggered a market downturn, highlighting deep public skepticism. On Mar. 24, the government unveiled a high-profile leadership team—featuring former presidents and renowned global financial figures—in an effort to restore public confidence. However, despite the high-profile lineup, the market responded negatively, reflecting persistent doubts about the fund’s credibility and future performance.

Time has passed since the House of Representatives passed the revision of the controversial Indonesian Military (TNI) Law, leading to nationwide civic unrest. Demonstrators have demanded that the government reverse the bill that expanded the military's presence in civilian affairs. Although the resistance has spread widely, militarization in the country continues to grow alongside it.

In a sweeping move that reshaped Indonesia’s financial landscape, the annual shareholders’ meetings (RUPS) of state-owned banks Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), and Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) not only approved multi-trillion-rupiah share buyback programs but more importantly ushered in a new era of leadership at the country’s largest state-owned banks. Market reacts positively to this sudden overhaul, with the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rebounding slightly on the final trading day before the long holiday. The index closed at 6,510.62 on Mar. 27, marking a 0.59 percent increase from the previous day’s close.

News media outlets and civil society organizations known to be critical of the government of Prabowo Subianto are coming under attack, mostly online, with accusations that they work for foreign interests. American billionaire, investor and philanthropist George Soros has been singled out as the main culprit behind them.

The Indonesian government’s plan to increase royalties on 12 mining commodities, including nickel, copper, gold and coal, has sparked protests from industry players. This policy, introduced during a challenging period for the mining sector, has raised concerns about its potential to discourage investment and reduce overall tax revenue. The mining industry is already struggling with regulatory mandates and fluctuating commodity prices, making the royalty hike an additional burden that could contradict the government’s goal of boosting critical mineral downstream industries.

The government has once again granted PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) an exemption to export copper concentrate, an unexpected decision that appears to contradict its own downstreaming policy to transition the country from raw material exports to processed goods. Included in this policy is an export ban on copper concentrate and ores, and Freeport previously received a temporary exemption from this ban while building its copper smelter in Gresik, East Java. The facility was completed in March 2024 however, and many are now questioning whether Freeport’s export privilege is to continue indefinitely.

The Greater Jakarta area cannot seem to catch a break as it recently suffered its worst flood since 2020, in what is dubbed the "five-year flood cycle”. Jakarta Governor Pramono Anung and West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi, who have only been in office for a month, have been criticized throughout this crisis as their constituents demand answers and adequate action to address the recurring natural disaster striking their regions.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has been wavering for months between joining the coalition government of President Prabowo Subianto or playing the role of opposition, loyal or otherwise, in the House of Representatives. When it holds its congress in April, it is not clear whether it will have made up its mind.

The revision of the Indonesian Military (TNI) Law has not only sparked widespread controversy in public but interestingly also revealed a semblance of a rift within the government and military leadership.

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) imposed a 30-minute trading halt on Tuesday from 11:19 a.m. to 11:49 a.m.

The government plans to establish 70,000 Red and White village cooperatives at an estimated cost of Rp 350 trillion (US$21.47 billion), with the official launch set for July 12, coinciding with National Cooperatives Day. This initiative aims to strengthen rural economies and tackle key challenges such as extreme poverty by improving access to staple goods. However, concerns have been raised about the project’s feasibility and the potential redundancy it may create alongside existing village-owned enterprises (BUMDes).

The recent scandal over MinyaKita has exposed a crack in the government and structural flaws in the domestic market obligation (DMO) policy. According to economists, the anti-market policy fails to account for volatile crude palm oil (CPO) prices, leaving producers struggling to meet costs and incentivizing violations.

Thomas “Tom” Trikasih Lembong, former trade minister during the first term of former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, is standing trial at the Jakarta Corruption Court on charges related to alleged embezzlement of state funds with regard to raw sugar imports. However, given Tom's support for the opposition candidate Anies Baswedan in the 2024 presidential race, suspicions have arisen that the case has been orchestrated to limit the opposition and even to prevent the emergence of a potential challenger in the next election.

Indonesia in 2024 held a series of elections that went off relatively peacefully and saw large voter turnout to give popular legitimacy to those in power today, yet the country saw its ranking in the global democracy index decline last year.

After a month-long silence, the Finance Ministry has finally released the state budget (APBN) performance report for January, in tandem with the February 2025 report. The delay had already stirred speculation about internal tensions within the ministry, including persistent rumors of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati’s possible resignation.

President Prabowo Subianto has positioned himself as a populist leader, launching ambitious initiatives to appeal to the broader public. However, his recent meet-ups with the country’s top business magnates have raised suspicion over his underlying intentions.

Indonesia has launched its first bullion banks by licensing Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) and state-owned pawn Pegadaian to provide bullion banking services. This initiative aims to strengthen the gold downstream sector and maximize economic benefits from processing, trading and financing, helping gold-producer Indonesia retain more value domestically.

The Constitutional Court has wrapped up all of the sessions to adjudicate regional election disputes and handed down several key rulings, including the most significant one, which was a vote rerun in several regions. The election reruns will be held amid the government’s austerity measures that may compromise the fair and transparent principles of the democratic process.

President Prabowo Subianto has signed Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No. 5/2025 to establish a forestry task force tasked with collecting fines from the forestry sector. The move mirrors efforts made under the previous administration to collect penalties from illegal palm oil operations. However, with the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) still investigating alleged corruption involving Rp 300 trillion (US$18.2 billion) in palm oil fines from that period, the formation of the new task force has raised questions about its timing and underlying motives.

Public trust in the government continues to diminish after a Rp 193.7 trillion (US$11 billion) graft case involving subsidiaries of state-owned oil and gas holding company Pertamina sparked national outcry. Among the nine suspects in the case is Kerry Adrianto Riza, the 38-year-old son of politically connected oil tycoon Muhammad Riza Chalid.

PT Sri Rejeki Isman (Sritex), one of Southeast Asia’s largest integrated textile manufacturers, officially ceased operations on Mar. 1, 2025, following its bankruptcy declaration. The shutdown led to the layoff of 10,965 workers between January and February 2025. In response, President Prabowo has instructed several ministers to devise solutions to help re-employ the affected workers, including leasing factory machinery, attracting investors to acquire the company and facilitating their absorption into other companies.

Volunteers who campaigned for Anies Baswedan in the 2024 presidential election have launched Gerakan Rakyat (People’s Movement) potentially offering a political vehicle for the popular but also controversial former Jakarta governor, should he decide to run in 2029. Still only 55 years old and very ambitious, it is almost certain that he will throw down the gauntlet.

The Indonesian Military (TNI) Law has joined the priority list of this year’s National Legislation Program (Prolegnas), after failing to make it in the 2019-2024 term of the House of Representatives. The revision comes as President Prabowo Subianto shows a tendency to involve the military in his flagship programs.

In an effort to stabilize rice production and prices, the Agriculture Ministry has enlisted the Indonesian Military (TNI) and the National Police to oversee the procurement of harvested dry unhusked rice (GKP) at a government-set price of Rp 6,500 per kilogram (30 US cents). This regulation on the Government Purchase Price (HPP) for unhusked rice took effect on Jan. 15, 2025.

From the outset of Prabowo Subianto’s presidency, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) was touted to play an opposition role. However, four months since he took office, the party has barely made headway in contesting any significant legislation, let alone take a firm, public stand in opposition to Prabowo.

President Prabowo Subianto has officially launched the highly anticipated Daya Anagata Nusantara (Danantara) Investment Management Agency, announcing an ambitious initial investment wave totaling Rp 325 trillion (US$20 billion) across 20 strategic projects. Through these projects, President Prabowo reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to long-term sustainable growth aimed at strengthening Indonesia’s economic foundation.