Escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States-Israel are putting pressure on global oil markets and pushing many economies into a defensive stance. Against this backdrop, Finance Minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, has maintained an outwardly optimistic outlook, projecting economic growth of 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Yet such confidence has been met with caution from economists and market participants. The concern is not merely how the government spends, but at what cost to fiscal credibility.

An ambitious national plan to develop 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity has gradually evolved from an idea floated by President Prabowo Subianto into a program now moving toward implementation. In recent months, the initiative has gained clearer institutional backing, with state asset fund Danantara emerging as the main investment and financing vehicle tasked with mobilizing capital for rollout. The initiative is framed as part of efforts to strengthen energy self-sufficiency, one of Prabowo's key national priorities, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt global energy supplies.

The interim freeze by MSCI on Indonesia’s February market status review has shaken the country’s capital market and triggered a wave of reform initiatives. Authorities quickly responded with measures including investigations into past fraudulent trading cases, new disclosure rules and plans to demutualize the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). While these steps signal a stronger reform commitment, fundamental problems remain unresolved, undermining the role of Indonesia’s equity market as a source of long-term financing for economic growth.

The first batch of Indonesians evacuated from war-besieged Iran landed back home on March 11, after an overland journey that took them through Azerbaijan and Turkey before they were flown to Jakarta. Following this group of 22 people will be a few more batches in the coming days and weeks as citizens flee the ongoing United States-Israelis attacks.

Budget allocations for the free nutritious meal (MBG) program now dominate the education budget. A school feeding program that does not fundamentally serve a core educational purpose has instead become a primary focus within the government’s education spending framework. This shift raises significant questions about fiscal priorities and the long-term health of the nation’s pedagogical infrastructure.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the escalating Middle East war has disrupted global oil and gas shipments, driving up prices and exposing Indonesia to serious energy and financial risks. Around 25 percent of the country's oil imports originate from the Middle East and pass through the strait, while domestic fuel reserves can only last for around 20 days. With oil prices recently surpassing US$100 per barrel and the rupiah weakening to around Rp 17,000 per United States dollar, Indonesia now faces an additional layer of economic and energy security risk. The administration of President Prabowo Subianto is therefore under pressure to secure alternative supplies and stabilize domestic markets.

Fitch Ratings recently revised Indonesia’s sovereign outlook from stable to negative, although it maintained the country’s BBB investment-grade rating. Fitch highlighted global geopolitical tensions and President Prabowo Subianto’s free nutritious meal program as potential fiscal risks. While the government insists the massive free meals budget will remain and promises to maintain fiscal discipline, questions arise over whether fiscal policy is being designed primarily for economic stability and public welfare, or whether it is driven by political considerations.

Indonesia faces rising inflation during the Ramadan season every year, but inflationary pressures this year have been compounded by the government’s free nutritious meal program, pushing annual inflation to 4.76 percent. The situation may worsen as the ongoing United States-Israel war on Iran pushes up global commodity prices, particularly oil and gas, which could further fuel inflation in Indonesia.

Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund Daya Anagata Nusantara (Danantara) marked its first anniversary in February 2026 with plans to invest US$26 billion in downstream projects, equivalent to 1.7 percent of gross domestic product. While the scale is significant, questions remain about its broader economic impact amid limited state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms and uncertainty over the implementation of its investment plans.

The progress in the corruption case involving crude oil procurement at state oil and gas company Pertamina for the 2018–2023 period deserves appreciation. Yet this development may represent only the tip of the iceberg in Indonesia’s law enforcement efforts. The sentences handed down to the suspects are considered mild and lack deterrence effect, while the main actor behind the scheme remains elusive amid the recurring scandals surrounding Pertamina.

Indonesia’s official response to the attack on Iran by Israel and the United States is unusual to say the least. The Foreign Ministry in a statement said Indonesia deeply regretted the breakdown of the negotiations between the US and Iran, offered to mediate to break the impasse between the two countries, and added that President Prabowo Subianto had “stated his readiness to launch diplomatic visits straight to the heart of the conflict, if necessary”.

The provisions in the Indonesia-United States Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) have once again drawn public scrutiny. This time, the debate extends beyond tariff reductions to a more sensitive issue: the possible easing of halal certification requirements for US products entering the Indonesian market.

The Indonesia–United States Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) reaches far beyond conventional tariff negotiations. While public debate has focused on potential export gains, the deal also includes provisions on investment, subsidy transparency and alignment with US regulatory standards that, over time, could narrow Indonesia’s room for maneuver in shaping its own industrial policy and development strategy.

Indonesia’s foreign policy has undergone major changes since President Prabowo Subianto took office in October 2024, but no change is more dramatic than in his Middle East policy, particularly in his approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

State-owned PT Agrinas Pangan Nusantara’s plan to import 105,000 pickup trucks from India has triggered strong criticism from domestic industry players, labor unions, and lawmakers who argue that the move undermines Indonesia’s automotive sector and contradicts national industrialization goals. The state-owned company, which is tasked with operating the Red and White Cooperatives (KMP) program, has defended the plan on the grounds of cost efficiency. Agrinas chief executive officer Joao Angelo De Sousa Mota stated that price considerations were the primary driver behind the procurement decision.

The import bribery case implicating three customs officials has entered a new phase with the discovery of several safe houses in Jakarta, where investigators found a stash of money amounting to billions of rupiah. The emergence of what appears to be a sophisticated bribery network not only further erodes institutional credibility but also raises a deeper question: Can corruption at the Customs Office truly be eradicated?

The Red and White Cooperative (KDMP) initiative is rapidly transforming from a flagship economic program into a mandate that must succeed at any cost. In its wake, the program is now cannibalizing the Village Fund, the very backbone of rural development and a decade-long symbol of local empowerment.

The administration of President Prabowo Subianto has reached a deal with Freeport-McMoRan as part of Indonesia’s broader negotiations to reduce punitive tariffs imposed by the United States under President Donald Trump. The agreement requires Freeport to divest additional shares in PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), which operates major mining assets in Papua, in exchange for an extension of its mining concession to the end of the mine’s life cycle. While the deal strengthens US access to critical minerals, it has drawn criticism for the limited involvement of indigenous Papuans.

Indonesia’s much-celebrated breakthrough in lowering United States tariffs is already losing its shine. Just one day after the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) was sealed, securing a headline tariff cut to 19 percent, the US Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump’s earlier tariff regime was unlawful. The question now is not how deep the cut appears on paper, but whether Indonesia has genuinely strengthened its bargaining position or is merely navigating an increasingly unpredictable trade landscape.

The recent deactivation of millions of National Health Insurance (JKN) contribution assistance recipients (PBI) has been revealed as more than a mere data-cleaning exercise. It has exposed a systemic failure to recognize the vulnerability of the poor, for whom subsidized health care is a necessity, not an option. This episode underscores persistent flaws in the design and execution of Indonesia’s health protection framework.

Global coal oversupply and falling prices have prompted the Indonesian government to cut domestic coal production this year in an effort to stabilize the market. The move has raised concern among coal producers, who warn that smaller operational scales could reduce employment and non-tax state revenue (PNBP). At the same time, to secure coal supply for state-owned electricity company PT PLN, the government plans to increase the domestic market obligation (DMO). This dual pressure on producers raises an important question: will the production cut outlined in the 2026 annual work plan (RKAB) for the mining sector help restore prices, or will it create further challenges?

President Prabowo Subianto convened back-to-back meetings with key business leaders at his Hambalang residence in West Java on Feb. 9 and 10. He began with representatives of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) before hosting heads of five of the country’s largest conglomerates the following day. The meetings were framed as efforts to strengthen government-business synergy and accelerate economic development. Yet they have also sparked questions about the political and economic calculus behind the outreach.

President Prabowo Subianto may be projecting himself globally and at home as a leader who is tough on corruption, not just in words but also in actions, with several high-profile corruption cases in his first year in office. But the business community is not impressed, and has even given the thumbs down to his overall anti-graft campaign.

Uncertainty continues to surround Indonesia’s latest trade breakthrough as President Prabowo Subianto and United States President Donald Trump prepare to formalize the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on Thursday, following their attendance at the first US-led Board of Peace meeting a day earlier. The framework unveiled in July 2025 sets a 19 percent tariff on Indonesian exports to the US market, a rate the Indonesian government portrays as a major diplomatic victory despite its magnitude. Yet it remains unclear whether the July framework represents the final terms to be signed or whether negotiations are still unfolding behind closed doors.

Following the resignation of the Financial Services Authority (OJK) chairman and deputy chairman, the government has formed a selection committee to seek the best candidates to lead the OJK and restore investor confidence after market turmoil triggered by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI)’s interim freeze of its February review of Indonesian stocks. The pressing question is whether any candidate will be capable of rebuilding market trust.

Once synonymous with controversy and stagnation, Meikarta has resurfaced on Indonesia’s national housing agenda. The government plans to repurpose the site for subsidized vertical housing for low-income households, with around 30 hectares (ha) of Lippo Group-owned land reportedly provided “for free”. The arrangement raises broader questions about transparency and whose interests the policy ultimately serves.

Several companies have come under scrutiny following global index provider MSCI’s decision to temporarily freeze Indonesia’s February review, citing concerns over market accessibility and transparency. In response to the announcement, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have stepped up due diligence and trading surveillance to address potential vulnerabilities. As this closer monitoring unfolds, it has brought renewed attention to sharp and unexplained price movements in several counters, most notably PT Sanurhasta Mitra (MINA), which had previously been flagged for unusual market activity.